First 4 rounds of the draft, 2 scenarios

So I have identified a number of players who I like in this years draft. Obviously the draft will have a lot to do with who we land in free agency and who we let leave for free agency.

I'm not going to go into great detail about what I would like to see the Jets do in free agency. Free agency is important, but every player who was allowed to hit the market by their previous team was allowed to do so for significant reasons. ALL OF THEM. Durability, bad attitudes, off the field concerns, age, .... they wouldn't hit the market if they were solid gold. Free agents aren't the foundation of a team, and The NY Jets need a foundation. That will come in this years draft. I hope.

I will just say, for now, that we need veteran savvy free agents in our secondary, O-line and LB corps. I'll list some names in the next few weeks.

As for the draft. I will list what moves I would make if we release Harvin and do not trade our #6 overall pick away, and another scenario where we keep Harvin and do trade our top pick. If we release Harvin we lose our 6th round pick, if we keep him we lose our 4th rounder.

The first scenario is pretty basic with everything saying status quo. its simply the #6 pick in the first 4 rounds. Nothing more nothing less.

Round #1- I'm listing more than one name because it's hard to say who will be left on the board at #6. This is my list in order of who I'd want. Kevin White, Shane Ray, Fowler Jr., Mariota

Round #2- I'd take either WR Dorsett from Miami or WR Green-Beckham if we don't land White with our first pick. If we do take White I'm going for an O-linemen like Koandjio from Alabama or Erving from Florida State.

Round #3- I want Duke Johnson or Jay Ajai at this spot. No question.

Round #4- I'd love to take TE Nick O'Leary here but I think he will be gone. If we can't move up to the late 3rd to land this talented TE I take a shot at QB Bryan Bennett from South Eastern Louisiana. He was Mariotas back up and transferred to a small school so he could get on the field. He is athletic, mobile and has a nice arm. He's a project player, but mid round QB's usually are. He has upside, could become a starter in a few years.

Scenario #2 involves trading our #6 pick for Nick Foles. I see Foles as our only real solution when trying to find a real franchise QB in 2015. If we can't land him we will go into camp with Geno, Simms, a rookie and maybe a guy like Matt Moore or Jimmy Clausen. Which means we won't be very competitive.

So I hope we take our #6 and trade it for the Eagles #20, Nick Foles and their 4th round pick. I think that could happen and it would help to replace the 4th rounder we would lose for keeping Harvin.

Round #1- (Number 20 overall). La'el Collins offensive tackle.
Round #2- Dorsett or Green-Beckham
Round #3- Johnson or Ajai
Round #4- (via trade with Philly)Kyle Emanuel ILB Great guy to pair with Davis in the middle.

...and for the record Bryan Bennett will probably still be available with our 5th round pick and I would land him there.

Scenario #2 would give us Foles, Ivory/Johnson, Harvin, Decker, Dorsett (or Green-Beckham), Kerly, Amaro, D'Brick, Mangold, Collins, Giacomini and hopefully a big name FA guard like Iupati from the 49ers.

That's a top 5 offense with Chan Gailey running the show. No matter how you look at it you will see my main focus in this draft is OFFENSE.

A day after the combine ends...

... and the picture comes into focus. I have some very strong beliefs regarding the combine.

#1) Watch the tape of what the player did on the field. If he is a LB and he was tossed around by O-linemen, I can careless how many times he benches 225lbs.

#2) The 40 yard dash is something that can be coached and manipulated, and is not very useful when gauging a players true football speed. There are a lot of other tests and drills that are hard to fake, but the management teams of these soon to be wealthy athletes take them and put them in Combine boot camp. They teach all the fundamentals that can trim major time off of a 40. Again, its the tape that matters. If a CB is getting beat deep play after play, a 4.35 40 is useless.

#3) Avoid the combine freak like the plague. Guys gain 20-25lbs in 60 days leading up to the combine, they prepare and rehearse answers to tough questions... it's all a show. I don't care if a QB can dominate the white board, if you haven't seen tape of them reading defense it's all memorized chatter. If they are throwing a bunch of picks in college, they will certainly struggle with the speed and savvy of NFL DB's. It's not about answering it in the class room on the board, it's about processing it at full speed in fractions of seconds. I'm not saying a player needs to be fully developed to draft them, but don't try and make a ho a housewife.

#4) The most valuable part of the whole combine is the medical analysis. If a player refuses any part of the thorough medical examination process in Indy he's off my board.

By the time the combine takes place a solid scouting department should have their draft boards sketched out in detail. Of coarse it needs to be in pencil, obviously things will come up in the players pro days, individual work outs and interviews, and off the field that will influence these rankings in the 3 big months leading into the draft (Feb, March, April). But, if you watched the tape and studied a players intangibles off the field regarding their upbringing and personal life, a faster than expected 40 shouldn't move them up your board one spot.

The biggest advantages of the combine are the aforementioned medical screenings, and the emergence of players from small schools who were probably overlooked. You can find a real diamond in the rough via this process. It's also very effective when searching for the cream of the crop amongst potential undrafted rookie FA's.

That being said, Mariota, Winston, Beasley, White, Cooper, Ray, Fowler Jr.... these guys are who they are. And we all know who they are. They haven't flown under the radar and their is ample tape to see what they can do on a football field.

Players who I liked before the combine and still like are:

RB: Duke Johnson, Jay Ajai, Josh Robinson. Johnson was a top prospect and had a great showing, Ajai was a bit under the radar and had a great showing opening some eyes, and Robinson is under the radar and disappointed in the combine. I still like all 3.

WR: White, Dorsett and Green-Beckham. All 3 showed out at the combine. We all know the risks that come with Green-Beckham, not matter how well he interviewed. Nothing changed.

TE: Nick O'Leary. Not a huge need for us, but this guy was a beast this past weekend. He'd be a nice addition in the best player available scenario. I'd take him with the 3rd pick of the 3rd round in a heart beat.

O-line: Ali Marpet, La'el Collins, DJ Humphries. A guard and two tackles. All 3 are round 1/ round 2 talents. Collins stock has really sky rocketed. I liked him with the #38 overall pick when he was being looked at as a late 2nd early 3rd. At one point he made it into the top 10 in some projections, but he has seemed to settle in the range of spots 20-32. Which I agree with.

LB's: Shayne Ray, Fowler Jr., Kyle Emanuel. I believe Ray is the best LB for the NY Jets. Fowler is also a rare talent, but all things being equal Ray's connection to Sheldon Richardson puts him over the top. It will help Rays transition into the pros and help us resign Richardson down the road. Emanuel is more of a ILB, he's smart and well rounded. He and Demario Davis in the middle would be perfect in Coach Bowles 3-4 system.

There are a few guys I think will be busts (considering where they will be drafted) and I hope the Jets don't bite. Victor Beasley and Amari Cooper. Beasley is the text book combine freak. He gained 20 pounds in 2 months and benched 225lbs 35 times. He's the Vernon Gholston of the 2015 draft. I's take him late 2nd early 3rd, but he's going to be a top 15 pick, and not worth it. Cooper may develop into a productive #2 WR in a few years, but he is definitely going top 10, and I that's a wasted pick.

Fundamentals of building an NFL team...

 

dis·ci·pline

ˈdisəplən/

:train oneself to do something in a controlled and habitual way.

There are certain core fundamentals that I believe in regarding building an NFL team. After a disastrous 2014 season, which was the 4th consecutive year without a playoff birth, many fans will be tempted to make desperation moves. Luckily fans don't run the team, but the question is this... Will our rookie GM, HC and embattled owner act on this same desperation and make poor decisions?

First of all, the two types of players you avoid when drafting are stupid players and injury prone players. The infamous Idzik era proved that by chasing and reaching for tempting game changers like Milliner and McDougle. If they can't stay healthy in college they have zero chance in the pros. Milliner could have been a #1 overall pick in the 2013 draft if it wasn't for his injury issues. Same with McDougle... talent wise he's a late 1st/ early 2nd .... without the injuries.

The 2nd thing on my list..... I am a big believer that spending big on aging defensive backs ends up being a waste of money 99.9% of the time. You can point to countless examples. Darrell Revis will most likely not even hit the market. But if he does, signing him here would be a huge mistake. The time to sign him to a long term extension was after the 2010 season. And the time to sign him to a short term deal with an option was last offseason, which is exactly what the Pats did. For us to land him we are going to have to pay him over 12 million a year and probably commit for 3 years. There is no question that by next year that contract will be prohibitive and suffocate us. CB's hit the wall with zero warning, just like HB's. He has also endured a major injury. That limits his long term milage as well. As tempting as it is, signing him for anything more than a 1 year deal will be a waste.

Next I have a very clear blueprint for a franchise QB... especially one that will be drafted high and play in NYC. I hate to say it, but Eli Manning is the prototype. First you need the intangibles. Even keel personality, humble but fearless, smart calm presence with the media, high character, and a guy who never allows the moment to be too big for him. Second you need pro style experince in college. Running gymicky/ spread/ option style systems that don't translate are a killer. If a guy is drafted in the top 10, in NYC, they will be expected to play at some point their rookie year. These option QB's rarely figure it out, but if they do they need time to sit and learn. Looking at Winston and Mariota they are both text book busts in the world of NY football.

Winston is a phenomenon on the field. He has a lot of Cam Netwon in him as well as the ability to anticipate throws and routes like Andrew Luck. Combined with a cannon arm he is a dream come true. But off the field he is a disaster. Under the bright lights of the big city and the crazy scrutiny that comes with them Winston will be a bigger bust than Jamarcus Russell. As an organization we need to resist the temptation to take this kid, and it will be hard becuase the free agent market is horrid.

As for Mariota he is the exact opposite. He's a guy who is exactly what every team dreams about intangibles wise, but he will be a huge project on the field. I could see him starting year 2 at some point like Kapernick did, but Kap was not a top 10 pick. Fans won't be patient that long.

Another temptation will be to drastically over pay a player just to plug a hole. Percy Harvin is scheduled to make 10 million this year, and frankly we can afford it. We have an embarrassment of riches salary cap wise in 2015. But players need to get what they are worth. It will have long lasting ramifications in our locker room if we pay this guy double his value. Especially if this bad attitude that has been rumored with Percy is true. Again, we need to be disciplined.

Finally, championship teams are built through the draft. NO JETS FAN wants to hear this right now. It's a slow process, and when the drafts are botched (like the Jets have done over and over and over) it is tempting to just go out and spend like drunken sailors on players who other teams let walk (and they let them walk for significant reasons... every one of them). I am not against being aggressive in this years free agent market. With 40- 50 million available it would be absurd to not be. But we have to spend wisely. And we can't trade away draft picks with only our 2015 roster in mind.

A few years back in 2006 and 2007 we landed 4 high profile players and a bunch of solid role players via the draft. A couple of smart trades and free agent moves and we were in back to back AFCCG's. We need to start again, we need to find elite guys like Mangold, Harris, Revis & D'Brick in the draft as well as solid role players like Cotchery, Rhodes, Keller, Eric Smith... ect. And we need to trade for guys like Cromartie & Thomas Jones and sign free agents like LT, Faneca and Woody.

Please look at what the Raiders did last year. They gave money to anyone that would take it. And they did worse than us, and we were terrible. However, they drafted two players who they can build around for years in Mack and Carr. That's where we want to be next year. 2 to 3 strong building blocks in this years draft, combined with the handful of talent we have landed the last 2 drafts can have us back in the final 4 by 2017 ;)

Just a preliminary sketch of the offseason...

So we have needs at RT, RG, WR, HB, FB, LOLB, ROLB, CB, FS... and did I miss anything??? Oh yeah QB.

That's a ton of holes to fill. Obviously we will need to utilize free agents, the draft and most likely a trade or two as well.

The first thing you need to do is prioritize positions. You have to look at what impact that particular position has on the outcome of the game and how your team is currently stocked at it. For example, WR is pretty darn important in todays NFL, but we have three rock solid guy in Harvin, Decker and Kerly. They all compliment each other well, plus we have Shaq Evans who we haven't even seen on the field yet. But there is no question we need to add to this squad. So the WR position will probably be towards the top of the list, but most likely not top 3.

So I would list our priorities as follows:

• QB (no question everything begins and ends with the man behind center)
• CB (we don't even have a #2 quality guy on our roster. Milliner has to be looked at as an extra player right now since he can't stay healthy. I doubt he will ever be reliable physically. We need a significant impact rookie as well as a top flight FA and a solid journeyman veteran to team up with McDougle and #27)
• LOLB (pass rushers are a rare and valuable like diamonds. We have zero threats on the outside right now)
• WR (We have a #2 in Decker, a sure handed slot guy in Kerley and a jack of all trades, x-factor style player in Harvin. What's missing? A true #1)
• RT (we need to fix this horrible O-line, but we do have 2 solid veterans and 1 or 2 promising young players. Nonetheless, if we hold onto Brick one more year we can bring in a top draft pick at this position and let him play RT his rookie year and then move him to the blind side in 2016)
• RG (there are some amazing free agents coming on the market. We need to spend here)
• HB (Ivory is a stop gap, I think we can get 2 solid years out of him, but he is limited speed-wise. He does provide the opportunity to bring in a mid round guy and let him learn. We don't need a high priced free agent, we need some youth at this position. I also hope we re-sign Powell)
• FS (we need someone to play with Pryor and help rebuild our horrendous secondary. Ideally a free agent)
• ROLB (I see a bunch of talented free agents out there who can step in and give us some much needed speed at this position. One major problem with our whole defensive structure is that we haven't had any OLB's who are worth anything in coverage. It makes our defense very 2 dimensional. Everyone knows they aren't dropping into coverage. Also Coples needs to be moved back to the D-line, he is NOT a LB)
• FB (Super overlooked, but very important to an offense that plays outdoors in the northeast and needs to be able to run the ball. If you find one who also has good hands it can seriously impact your offense)

It's impossible at this stage to predict which players will go where in the draft, and who will actually hit the free agency market. You can't lay down a rock solid blueprint, but you can begin to sketch the offseason two weeks before the Super Bowl. This will change as the weeks and months progress, but this is how I see it today.

Starting with QB I think the solution is Nick Foles. He has less than 30 starts, but I have seen enough to feel he is the real deal, and he is certainly the best QB available this offseason. He can be at least as good as Flacco, and Jersey Joe has a ring. He won't be a free agent, but he will be available via trade. There are a lot of scenarios on how we could land him, the best for the NY Jets would be trading next years 2nd rounder for him. I don't think anyone would give Philly a 1st rounder for him, so next years 2nd round pick is solid compensation. It's an outside shot this could happen, but frankly we desperately need every one of our picks this year, especially the top 3. That being said, I'd go as high as this years second if we had to... or even take Mariota at #6 and trade him to Philly for Foles and a few draft picks. Foles and Philly's 2nd and 5th rounders' would do it for me. Chip Kelly is new to negotiating personnel moves. That may be good or bad for us. Either way Foles is the answer.

Next we move to CB. Antonio Cromartie seems like he would make sense. He fits the journeyman veteran spot I mentioned. He can play #2, or in the nickel. I actually think he could be a great nickel back because he s very opportunistic when it comes to INT's. Letting him focus on TE's and slot guys could be good. Milliner and McDougle may have an impact, but we need a top flight, elite FA. And, I'm not hoping for Revis. Just not interested. As for a true #1 I don't see one. But a combo of Perrish Cox from the 49ers and  Kareem Jackson from the Texans combined with the other 3 guys I just mentioned could be a pretty damn solid CB group.

The LOLB spot should be filled by none other than Shayne Ray. This kid is a freak of nature. He is so athletic, fast, prototype 3-4 LB size and he is a former college team mate of Sheldon Richardson. Talk about a perfect way for a rookie to make the transition into the pros. The two of them back together would be sick. We would need to use our #6 overall pick on him, and he has everything you look for in a top 10 pick. There will be more on him when I post specifically about the draft, but this kid is the man!

WR up next. The 2015 draft is not the 2014 draft. I doubt there will be #1 quality guys available in the early 2nd round and I just used our #1 pick on Ray. However there will be some real talent out there in the free agent market. One of the byproducts of an amazing WR draft last year is a great FA class this year at the same position. I think Josh Gordon will be up for grabs, and boy is he a HUGE RISK. This kid is a mess off the field and a mega star on it. He changes games, he totally changes the defenses approach, and he is worth a roll of the dice. You don't win Super Bowls without taking a few calculated risks. With a ton of cap room this offseason, a properly structured contract and the right enviorment could fix this kid and give us the perfect compliment to Decker, Kerly, and Amaro.

I am not a proponent of keeping Percy Harvin, and if we land Gordon we don't need him. Harivn is a solid player, but there is a lot of talk about him being a cancer in the locker room and he is very injury prone. We have enough injury prone players on this roster. If we could trade him for anything I would take it, but his contract is prohibitive to trades and perfect for cutting him. He also has no incentive to restructure. If we cut him he will be signed quickly for good money and we have no QB, so why would he want to stay here?

At the RT spot I like the idea of an early 2nd rounder. La'el Collins from LSU is the perfect guy. He can play guard or RT day one and can develop into a solid LT when D'Brick moves on. 6'5" and 320 lbs, with quick feet and great durability. So I just spent our top 2 picks.

At the RG spot Mike Iupati from the 49ers is the no-brainer solution. He's 27 and can be the bridge that will help the transition from Mangold and D'Brick to our younger guys over the next few years. We have the cash, and this is how you spend it. He's simply one of the top 3 players at his position. Perfect fit.

At HB we have Ivory and Powell. Ivory has 2 rock solid years left, but he isn't an all purpose back. Powell is a free agent and I love him as a 3rd down back. He runs hard, he's elusive and he has great hands. Letting him walk would be a mistake. As for our 3rd back, now that Chan Gailey has signed as our OC everyone wants to see CJ Spiller as a Jet. Haven't we already been burned by a washed up free agent known as CJ?? Spiller is always hurt and is a fumble machine. NO THANK YOU.

I want either Duke Johnson from Miami or Jay Ajai from Boise St. Both are future #1 guys IMHO. For 3 or 4 years smart teams have been landing gems in the mid rounds at the HB position. I want in on that party. We tried it once with Greene, and that sucked. I want a young guy who can contribute year one and emerge year two like Bell from Pittsburgh. One of these two rookies should hopefully be on the board with the #6 pick of the 3rd round, and if we have to move up a few spots to the late 2nd I am all for it. They are both future superstars.

There are a ton of outstanding veteran FS prospects that will be on the market this year. I'd like to see Dwight Lowery back on the Jets in 2015 to provide depth with Jaquan Jarrett, but for the starting spot Devin McCourty is my guy. He's a ball hawk and would fit so well with Bowles. I have a strong feeling the Pats let him hit the market and I'd love to have him. He's the exact opposite of Pryor and they would be a nice pair in the defensive backfield.

At ROLB I would go again with a free agent for the starting spot. In order of my interest I like Jerry Hughes, Jason Worilds and Sam Acho. I wanted to draft Jerry Hughes way back when, and he finally has grown into the player I hoped he would be. There is about a 30% chance the Bills let him walk. He's the best fit for us. Combined with Ray, Davis and Harris we would have the most dynamic LB corps in the league. Worilds would be great too, but there is probably a 25% chance the Steelers let him walk. But I can hope. Sam Acho is almost a lock to be a Jet in 2015. He has worked with Bowles and they will reunite here in NY. He is not the most impactful pass rusher but he is truly an all around LB. An upgrade from what we had in 2014. I also think he could move to ILB once Harris is gone in 2016 and play alongside Davis.

Finally we have the FB position. Hynoski from the Giants is the best all around FB on the market this year. I'd also love John Kuhn but Green Bay won't part with him. I think we should look in the draft for an impact player at this position as well as bring back Bohanan and Conner to camp. I can't say enough how important it is to have the right guy at FB.

One final move I would be very open to is trading either Coples or Wilkerson. As I mentioned (and Coples proved this year) he is simply not an OLB. I think he can be very effective back on the line with his hand in the dirt. Wilkerson is talented, but he will be demanding a huge contract. With Richardson and Coples in place we have no need for Mo. If we do extend him then we will have 3 high end defensive ends and won't be able to resign them all. Now is the time to make a move, especially considering that Mo has some significant trade value. I believe we could land a late 2nd rounder from a needy team like the Falcons. That would work out perfect for drafting one of the RB's I'm interested in this year.

I got my guy!!

If you read back to 2009 when this blog started the Jets NEVER go in the direction I would like when it comes to coaches or players. That has been the case my entire 30 years as a Jets fan, but its only documented since 2009 LOL

I always have ideas about draft choices, free agents, and I've been calling for Rex to be replaced for years. Most importantly their overall approach to building the team has been wrong and against my best instincts because of Woody Johnson. I hated the idea of keeping Bradway and promoting Tannenbaum, firing Mangini and keeping Tannenbaum, I hated firing Tannenbaum and keeping Rex, and I really didn't like giving Rex 3 different OC's.

Woody's half measures have kept us down as a team for many, many years. At a certain point you have to hit the reset button and change the voices in your ear. Woody has always been very transparent that he is not a football guy and that he relies on the experts, like he should. Well, the experts in his ear were doing nothing but perpetuating a culture of mediocrity. And in the highly competitive environment that is the NFL, eventually that culture turns to garbage, which is exactly what we saw in 2014.

I have to give our owner credit. He bit the bullet and fired the HC and GM. He found two outstanding football "lifers" to not only help him identify and interview candidates, but to draw up a whole new blueprint. And, he is doing it in the right order.

They interviewed a bunch of HC and GM candidates. He identified his main target at GM and spent a few days with him seeing how they could work together. They narrowed the HC list to two (Quinn & Bowles). They were both NJ natives and former Jets coaches. They were very interested in both, but Quinn won't be able to be signed for a few weeks and Bowles was in high demand. So they did the right thing. They brought in Bowles and had him meet with the new GM, and most importantly they didn't let him leave the building.

For the record, I think Bowles is the FAR SUPERIOR candidate to Quinn. What I expect from Bowles is a team that will play hard for him. We had that with Edwards and Ryan, and certainly didn't with Mangini. Jets players will respond to Bowles just like players on other teams have because of a number of reasons. He's a former 8 year starter and a super bowl champ as a player. He's been a coach for over 15 years. He has an amazing track record including working for Parcells, Reid and Arians. He is a true Parcells protégé. I wanted Bill to be an advisor to Woody during this search and I am sure he would have recommended Bowles as the guy. He will also bring a culture of accountability and no excuses.

I also think that being one of only 5 African American coaches in the league is something we can be proud of as Jets fans. I think our players (of all colors) will respond to that. Even in 2015 it's not easy to work your way up as a black man from player to Head Coach. It doesn't happen by mistake.

I can't say enough about what it feels like to not only have Rex gone, but to have my number one choice, who is also coincidentally an alumni from the same high school as me, as the new HC of the NY Jets. I have always supported whomever was the HC or GM until they proved they weren't up to the job. But for the first time I can REALLY get behind the face of the franchise from day one.

Well done Woody Johnson!

2013 & 2014 Draft Redux

This is a tradition of many Jets fans that goes back to the 70's. Every few years lets look back at all of our busts and we could have taken instead.

2013, Imagine if we took:

#9- Richardson
#13- Kyle Long
#39- Le'Veon Bell
#72- Keenan Allen or Terrance Willams (both better than anyone we have)
4th rounder for Ivory, I'm keeping that one
#141- Luke Wilson


And in 2014:

#18- David Carr
#49- Amaro
#80- Josh Brown
#104- Martavius Bryant

Can you imagine in 2014 if our roster would have been:

QB- Carr
RB- Bell/ Ivory
FB- Conner
TE- Amaro/ Wilson
O-line- Brick, Long, Mangold, Colon, ... Anybody but Giacomini
WR- Decker, Kerley, Williams, Bryant, Brown

Can you also imagine Carr with this group of offensive players?

Bowles & Foles???

I hate the big crazy trade scenario ideas that always float around on sports forums and message boards. BUT, this is a very interesting offseason coming up. It looks like we may end up with another defensive minded HC. Quinn and Bowles are front runners, and we sure could do much worse than either one of them. That being said, I can't see us developing another rookie.

I wouldn't touch Winston with a 10' pole, and Mariota is not a plug and play, day one starter for any team besides Philly. Because of his upside I would take him with the #6 pick even though he needs to sit at least 6-8 games his rookie season. But he won't drop to 6 and I can't see giving away what we would need to in order to move up to #1 for this QB.

I think a 3 way trade could seriously work. But there are some variables. First the trade:

• Jets give up #6 overall pick for Nick Foles from Philly.
• Philly gives up #6 and #20 to Tampa to move up to #1 and take Mariota.
• Tampa takes Hundley or Winston.

The obvious variables start with Philly. How much has Kelly set his heart on Mariota? The Eagles have a pretty damn talented squad and they missed the playoffs this year. Foles and Sanchez are smart capable QB's and they couldn't get it done. This is not a system that you can just throw any QB into and win at a high level in the NFL. You need the right guy and Mariota has over 40 games under his belt and is taylor made for Kelly and his offense. But does Kelly believe he needs Mariota and does he have the balls to make a huge move right after taking over personnel control decisions?
 

The next variables are all about who Tampa wants at QB. Does Lovie want to develop a rookie with McCown as a stop gap? If so is Mariota his first choice? Maybe Winston or Hundley is more his style. Lovie migh also covet Foles instead. That blows my whole plan.
 

The final variable is about the fire power a #6 and #20 picks carry. I think they are enough to take a number 1. I have no question that Foles is worth a #6. He's experinced, he has the prototype build, cannon arm, AND Bowles was coaching in Philly when Foles was drafted, so he knows as an insider if he's a hard worker and has the intangibles required. The other important connection is Marty Mornhinweg and his association with Foles. He coached him as a rookie, and Foles was chosen specifically to fit his offense coming out of college. I'm not a big Marty fan, but if Bowles is hired I think he may retain him. With Foles at QB I would go for that.

 

I'd rather have a veteran guy if we have a defensive minded HC. Foles is not an established franchise QB, but there isn't one available on the market. Foles is the best we can get. And he has unlimited upside. I'd love to see Foles, Glennon and Smith as our QB's in 2015.