The right place @ the right time... Jets vs. Colts

I have a few opinions about yesterdays game:

• The play calling on both sides of the ball was horrible. Rushing 3 players and playing zone defense against Peyton on 3rd and long is suicide. That reverse call by Shotty in the first quarter was criminal.

• If the play calling was horrible, then the penalty calls and non-calls were sickening.

• I think Sanchez is a bit shell shocked right now and he needs a little more swagger, thats something I didn't think I would say about any Jets player this year.

• Braylon Edwards is not at all inspired to play football. I would re-sign him in the offseason, but he needs a contract that has a very moderate base salary and a lot of incentives. If we give him a big deal after his half ass performance this season (half with the Browns and the other half with us) we are pretty much guaranteeing that he will continue to be just average.

• Bart Scott was our top free agent priority and he has been a bust, no matter how you measure it. I can only hope he turns it up in the playoffs and stops all of the ridiculous penalties.

• I like Shonn Greene. Thats all, I just like him.

• I don't agree with the Colts decision to bench their players, I fully expected them to go for it. That being said, if the Colts were nursing a 5 or 10 point lead in the 4th quarter and Peyton suffered a torn ACL on an accidental play, everyone on the face of the earth would have attacked that coach and GM for leaving him in.

• I would love to see a big shake up in Washington this offseason. I would trade Edwards for Moss in a second. It would essentially be the same as the trade that sent Moss to Washington so we could get back Coles, who was ours to begin with. Moss and Cotchery would be a wicked one/two punch, and Jets fans would embrace Moss like a favorite son. I don't know where that came from, but I just wanted to get it off my chest.

Here are some facts:

• The Jets are in control of their own destiny going into week 16 because they have won more games than any of the other teams who are still in contention.

• The Steelers in 05', the Giants in 07', and the Cardinals in 08' all had lack luster regular seasons and got hot in the post season. All 3 teams made it to the Superbowl and two won it all.

• Teams who lead the league in rushing and defense usually fair very well in the playoffs.

• The Colts have won 14 straight games, and they earned the right to do whatever they feel is best for their ultimate goal... winning the big game.

• And finally, the Giants are mathematically eliminated from the post season, and no matter how much their fans cry and point the finger at the Christmas gift the Colts gave us... your season is over.

The playoffs have started for the Jets, it's win or go home from here on out. The Bengals have a very interesting call to make this week. If they give us the game like Indy did, they will most likely have to play us again the following week in the wildcard round. If they don't play their starters they are basically saying that they want us and our rookie QB in the post season. That would probably be a good strategy.

If we win and get an invite to the dance, the gameplan vs. our offense will be very simple. Teams will put 8 in the box and challenge us to beat them with our inconsistent QB. Players like Dustin Keller and Braylon Edwards are going to have to exploit singe coverage. We know Cotchery will show up, but the rest of our offense is one big question mark.

All I know is it's week 17, and if we win we are in. Are we lucky that are schedule worked out the way it did? Hell Yes! Should we apologize for it? No Way! Any team who has ever won a Superbowl has had luck on their side. Sometimes you need to be in the right place at the right time.

Will any team be scared to play us in the post season? No. If I was an NFL headcoach I would love to face the Jets. Our QB is as green (no pun intended) as can be, and our #1 defense has made it a habit of laying down when the game is on the line. Our rookie headcoach has also shown his lack of experience. So, we are probably any teams MOST desirable opponent.

That being said, when the playoffs started last year I would have said the same thing about the Arizona Cardinals... and they chewed up the NFC and spit them out. They looked like the most balanced team in football in January, and they were about one minute away from winning it all.

14 wins, zero losses, and counting.

In about 2 hours the NY Jets will face the Indianapolis Colts. Manning and is squad have had their ups and down in 2009. Some weeks they have looked dominate, and they have looked very average in others. They are 14-0 because they find a way to win. The Jets, on the other hand, have found different and creative ways to lose. The Colts have won multiple games on the final play and we have done the opposite. Thats why they are preparing for the post season, and our players will be watching from home.

Rex and Mark are in a very advantageous position this week. They are playing an elite team in their house. Indy has everything to lose, and we have very little to lose. We are huge underdogs and we have one of the least experienced QB's going head to head with the very best QB of his generation. Peyton needs 148 yards passing to break the 50K mark... a real milestone. I am only guessing here, but I am confident that there is only one record on his mind today... 19-0. With a real shot at going undefeated and making even more history, #18 and his teammates will be playing their hearts out this week.

All of these reasons are why the Jets are in a great position to save their season. The playoffs are out of our reach, but a win this week would validate Rex's entire rookie champaign as a head coach. If we beat the Colts it would give us real momentum going into 2010. It would also guarantee 8 wins and we would avoid a losing season... we would even have a shot at 9-7. To take this concept a little further, if Sanchez could put up a high quality performance, his overall public image would get a much needed facelift.

The keys to victory are simple. #1) No turnovers by the offense or special teams. #2) We need to convert on 3rd down. Quick "three and out" drives are fatal against an explosive offense like Indy. #3) Our defense and special teams need to score points and cause turn overs. #4) Peyton needs to be on his back... early and often. The Colts are a finesse team in all three phases, we need to manhandle them and take them out of their comfort zone.

I feel confident that the Colts will win this game, but if the Jets have a chance it will come down to making plays at the end of the game, something we have failed at this year and the Colts have specialized in. A game winning play by #6 at the buzzer would have some real long term ramifications.

Playoff predictions including my Superbowl picks...

In the AFC the Colts and Chargers should be the two top seeds. The Pats should win the East. I am not convinced the Bengals have the North locked up. The Ravens have a harder schedule, but they are very dangerous. I have a feeling they will steal the division, and the Bengals will be the wildcard. As for the other wildcard, I would watch out for Jacksonville.

In the NFC the Saints, Cards and Vikings have all clinched their division. The first wildcard should be Green Bay, no question. As for the winner of the NFC East and which team will take the other wildcard... thats a tough question. I see the Eagles winning the division and Dallas as the final playoff team from the NFC.

My final four would be Green Bay and the Saints on the NFC side and the Colts and Chargers from the AFC.

And finally: I predict a Saints/ Chargers Superbowl with Brees getting revenge against the team that dumped him after a minor shoulder injury. This is a the Saints year, but for me the real story would be how A.J. Smith, the Chargers GM, drafted both of the starting QB's in the same Superbowl. That would be a hell of a thing to put on ones resume.

The great thing about the NFL is that there is only two weeks left in the season, and I could be wrong about the teams who actually make the postseason, not to mention the Superbowl teams. One of the real variables in Pro Football is how quickly a teams fate can be altered by one play. All of my top four teams have elite QB's, and a significant injury can happen at any time.

December Deja-vu... Jets vs. Falcons week 15

I'm going to keep this as streamlined and simple as possible. We aren't losing games because of Mark Sanchez. Our defense and their lack of conditioning is to blame. Sanchez, Schottenheimer, and our offense are the strength of our team and will be the key to our future. I'm done with complaining about the decision to start the rookie, and all of the other miscues I have warned about since before the draft in April. If you are interested in reading about that, feel free to go to the archive. I want to talk about today... and tomorrow.

Our "#1 defense" is a complete fraud. We are on track to make history this season. We will most likely end up as the first team to have the #1 ranked defense and not make the playoffs... sickening. We have some excellent young players on the defensive side of the ball, but we also have some overpaid underachievers. Guys like Bryan Thomas, Kerry Rhodes, and Sean Ellis have huge contracts. They have all been inconstant over the past few years. The Jets response, or lack there of, is what's wrong with this team today.

A few weeks ago I suggested the termination of or GM Mike Tannenaum. Mr T has done some very good things as our top guy, but we are facing our 3rd straight year with out a playoff birth, that would be 3 out of four years if you are counting. As an organization we need to hold every member to a high standard based on performance. For me, the Favre debacle, coupled with 3 straight years without even a sniff at the postseason, is enough for me to say goodbye with no regrets.

We need to send a clear message to players, coaches, and even those in the front office that your pay check is based on delivering when it counts. That would eliminate slacking players like the trio I just mentioned, and it would also help to prevent losses like the one this past week against the Falcons. Our defense continues to let us down at key moments. They aren't opportunistic, and no matter what the stats say, they may not even be a top 10 squad right now... not to mention "#1".

We have to dump the dead weight on this team, and Rex needs to run a tighter ship. Sloppy special teams mistakes like 3 missed field goals this week or two back to back TD returns against Miami are the result of a lack of preparation. The 'swagger' is great, but in 2010 Rex needs to incorporate a lot more discipline.

3 games to go...

We have three games left and all three opponents are balanced, dynamic squads who are coached well. We don't have a realistic shot at the playoffs, but we do have a shot at the two top seeded teams in our conference thanks to the scheduling Gods.

In reality the Colts and Bengals will probably rest a lot of their starters. It is so important that we finish the 2009 champaign playing solid football. Right now the heat is off of Rex and Mark and thats because of one simple reason... we are winning games. In NY there is only one thing that matters... WINS. If we drop these final few games, and Greene and Sanchez continue to struggle, the offseason will be full of distractions.

As fans we need to prepare ourselves for a few things in 2010. First of all Mark Sanchez will not look like Peyton Manning next year. He will still be learning and still making mistakes. It doesn't take 1 season to learn how to play QB in the NFL. Luckily he is surrounded by a pretty solid team, so it should help expedite the learning process.

Secondly, Thomas Jones has done an amazing job this year, but he will probably hit the wall very soon. RB's in the NFL don't decline gradually, they fall off a cliff. Expect to see some new faces in our backfield. I hope to see a lot more touches for Shonn Greene in 2010, and it's hard to say if Neon Leon Washington will be able to perform at the same level. I feel confident that the Jets will extend him with a contract that is loaded with performance based incentives, but will he still have his burst and elite agility?

3rd: I would also expect some big changes on the D-line. We are currently ranked as the number one defense in the NFL, and we are top 10 in every important category except for one. We are ranked 17th in total sacks... we need to improve our pass rush. Sean Ellis has his best days behind him. He has overachieved a little this year, but it time to get some youth at the DE position. We haven't had solid, 'bookend' DE's since the heyday of Ellis/Abraham. Richard Seymour is miserable in Oakland and will do anything to get out of the Bay area.

He will be a free agent after the season, but Oakland has the right to franchise him. They won't let him leave without any compensation. I'd offer Ellis and maybe even Thomas Jones as bait for a game changer like Seymour. I'm sure he would love to be back in the AFC East and have a shot at sticking it to Belichick twice a year. He has at least 3 more solid seasons in him, and a veteran on the weak side of the line and another at DT (Jenkins) would be nicely complimented by a young (possibly a rookie) DE on the strong side.

There are a few guys who could end up elsewhere in 2010 who may be considered expendable. Some of these players have shown me flashes of greatness. For many years I felt Brad Smith was a waste of a roster spot. I am starting to feel he can become an important part of our offense in 2010 if he can get some consistent touches, and if he is also allowed to throw the ball once in a while. He is a true triple threat, I wouldn't make him the centerpiece of the offense, but I would target him at least 2 or 3 times as a receiver, and let him take a minimum of 4-5 snaps as a wildcat QB. With 6-8 touches, including some option plays where he can run or throw the ball, he can make an impact.

Another player who is finally on my radar is Danny Woodhead. I wasn't very impressed with him as a preseason RB, but now that I have had the chance to see him as a slot receiver who can also play out of the backfield, I am starting to see what everyone else has been excited about. This guy is elusive and has excellent burst. A wildcat package with Smith, Woodhead and Washington could be pretty damn scary next year if used effectively.

One more guy who may get his walking papers at season end is Brian Schottenheimer. He has been criticized very heavily this season, and he has had a handful of questionable calls. I felt that our first game vs. Buffalo was his only 'bad' game. He was way too aggressive with his game plan, but I do understand why he was trying to spark our offense. Other than that game I would grade his play calling as an A+. The passing game has looked sloppy and out of sync... that has a little to do with a rookie QB, but it's not all #6's fault. I don't think this team is getting enough reps in practice and either Schotty or Rex are to blame for that. Even though we are a bit to 'player friendly' in the coaching department, I'd like to see us hold on to our entire coaching staff.

One final note. I would like to see Kellen Clemens move on. It' not because I don't like him, it's because he is young and it's not fair for him to simply waste away on the bench. He deserves a chance to compete for a starting job, and thats not going to happen here. Some potential teams that could use his services would be the Raiders, the Seahawks, the Panthers and the Rams. I really like his arm and skill set... he just needs more playing time so he can develop the confidence to navigate the pocket a little better.

With all this being said, we still have 3 games left in 2009, as I mentioned before. We may be out of the playoffs, but these next few weeks will have long lasting ramifications.

ZZZZZZZZZ... Jets vs. Bucs week 14

Wow, the NY Jets beat the worst team in football and their rookie QB. I wish I could say I am impressed. In reality I am much more impressed with Tampa's flamboyantly gay 'old-school' logo featured above. Back in those days they were the cream-cycle, homosexual Raiders from florida... there's no other way to explain it. Anyways, back to the present day.

Our defense looked pretty good, most especially our elite duo of David harris and Darrelle Revis. #24 had a play late in the 3rd quarter defending a 'back shoulder' pass to Antonio Bryant. When running a route like this, a WR will take off at full speed straight down the the sideline. The QB will throw the ball behind the receiver to his back shoulder. The WR will stop and let the defensive back pass him and catch the ball. When the timing is perfect this is almost impossible to defend, except when you try it on Revis Island.

In anticipation Revis felt the receiver coming to a dead stop and reached back with his left hand, deflecting the pass with his finger tips. Darrelle has 6 INT's this year, but it's the little things he does that make him this years defensive MVP. He may not receive this great honor, but he certainly has earned it.

Thomas Jones continues to look like a 25 year old back instead of an old man in his 30's. I want to go on record as saying that there is no question that Jones takes steroids. His physical transformation over the past 5 years is only rivaled by Mark McGwire's mutation in the 90's. The NFL generally gets a pass on any legitimate roid' investigations, but if Jones keeps this up this kinda' play for another few years, questions may start to spring up. That was an attempt at humor.

On a much less funny note, Kerry Rhodes obviously spent all of his energy 'twittering' like a spoiled child and had very little left for the game on Sunday. I was as disgusted by his comments this past week about playing elsewhere next year. The only reason Rhodes wasn't suspended by the coach was because it would be a huge story and a possible distraction. I am convinced now that the Jets are done with Kerry and he will be gone soon enough. I, for one, am counting the days.

I am very encouraged by Shonn Greene. He has had ball control issues and is very obviously a rookie. He had a huge fumble in this game on the tail end of a long run. It's frustrating to watch, but it's par for the course... they call them rookies for a reason. However, he is a powerful 'north/south' runner who has excellent acceleration and impressive vision. He just needs to be coached up on how to hold that pigskin with 3 contact points at all times.

Bart Scott officially made the most bone headed move of the Jets 2009 season by getting into a fight with one of the Bucs special teams players ad proceeded to rip off his helmet and throw it. Instead of a punt, the Bucs were given a 1st down and the defense had to go back to work. FAIL.

We are 7-6 and have a real shot at 8-8. I would be very satisfied with a .500 season all things considered. The playoffs are out of reach, maybe not mathematically, but realistically we are done. I have said it before, and I will say it again: Mike Tannenbam should be terminated. He has been our GM for 4 seasons. We have missed the playoffs 3 times during that stretch. A message should be sent that results are all that matter in this organization.

Mr. T has made some moves that have worked out well, and he has also botched a few things. I like his drafts overall, but I hate the way he trades away draft picks. The team he inherited in 2006 was a real mess, and the NY Jets are much more talented today. But, in the end, he is 1 for 3... and thats 3 years in a row without a playoff birth.

Vernon Gholston... and other off-season questions

#50 Vernon Gholston was the #6 overall pick in the 2008 draft. The NY Jets fans suffered through a disastrous 2007 champaign, and the one bright spot was the fact that we had a top 10 draft pick as a result. The whole idea behind drafting a player in the first round, as apposed to the 7th round, is the players ability to make an impact... in the long term. If you look at LB's who have been drafted highly in the past decade, very few make a significant impact from day one. Guys like Merriman and Vilma are exceptions to the rule.

That being said, Gholston has yet to record any real stats (zero sacks, zero FF, zero INT, and a handful of tackles) because he has yet to win the starting job. His playing time has been limited because he is fat and happy right now. He's a guy who got a scholarship to a big name college and played his heart out. Next thing he knew, the NFL was knocking on his door with a truckload of cash. He's going through the motions, but at this point of his life he doesn't realize how quickly this whole wild ride can come to an end.

In this case I trust that the powers that be will do the right thing regarding this player. If they keep him it will only be because he has shown that he is ready to start giving 100%. The Jets can easily dump him this offseason and they won't need to deal with any salary cap ramifications. Fans are completely outraged by his huge salary and lack of production, but luckily the experts make the decisions.

When draft choices like Gholston don't pan out... "the experts" end up going back to whatever it was they did before they we team architects. Make no mistake, Mr. T's job will be in real jeopardy if we miss the playoffs again (3 out of his 4 years as GM) and our coaches decide #50 is a waste of space.

There are some other players who may or may not be wearing the green and white in 2010.

Lito Sheppard has struggled with nagging injuries and has been outplayed by our nickel back Dwight Lowery. Rumors have already started regarding the Jets dumping the former Eagle after only one season. Braylon Edwards has also been a non-factor and there is talk about him being released. There is no chance either one of these players are let go. If, hypothetically, we did release these two players, that would make it 3 trades in two years (including Favre) that have cost us multiple draft picks and yielded only one season of service (and in Edwards case it would only be a partial season). That would be unprecedented In the NFL, and also absurd.

Not all of our players have been a disappointment. Players like Sean Ellis and Thomas Jones have been stand-outs and conventional thinking seems to dictate extending both of them into 2010 and beyond. Ellis is a pass rusher and Jones plays the most personally destructive position in all of football. DE's and RB's hit the wall very abruptly and the clock is ticking very loudly for both of these Jets.

As I have stated in previous posts I feel we should address the pass rushing DE, running back and right tackle spots in this years draft. If we could get some trade value for players like Ellis or Jones I would be all for it. We need to get younger at key positions and there are some interesting players available in this draft.

Jets vs. Bills.... Lucky week 13

The Jets beat the Bills in Toronto on Thursday night. For the second week in a row we squeaked out a win against one of the leagues poorest teams. They have an interim head coach, a back up QB from Harvard, and their "home field" for this weeks game is about 100 miles from their real home. With the chips stacked in our favor we still made it look hard.

The story of the game revolved around two missed TD opportunities and a minor injury to #6's knee. Sanchez grossly overthrew Cotchery on a simple post route and on the following drive he delivered a perfect strike to Edwards who was wide open thanks to a blown coverage. Edwards dropped the pass, and a 'go-ahead' 84 yard TD never happened.

We had a bunch of close calls on offense, and our best overall player, Darrelle Revis, also had some missed INT's on defense. #24 played an excellent game by pretty much making T.O. a non-factor for the second time this season. That being said, he dropped at least 3 easy picks, and Lito Sheppard also let an easy one slip away which would have been a sure TD. We could have easily put up 40 plus points on the Bills, but pro football is all about inches and fractions of seconds.

Miami beat the Pats on Sunday and as a result the Jets are still a contender in the AFC East. Let me be 100% clear, we have NO CHANCE of making it to the playoffs. It's not because we have a rookie QB... it's not because we have a rookie head coach.... it's because we have lost to too many AFC teams. Our division record and conference record are horrible. We would need to somehow end up with the best record in our division. Miami and New England simply have easier schedules down the stretch. We still have the Colts and Bengals in our future, and they are currently the two top seeds in the AFC. Sorry Jets fans, but it isn't happening this year.

On the bright side, we are still technically alive after 12 games and thats very important. This is our first year with a new regime, if we end up at .500 and the players still have something to play for up until the end... that would make this season a success in my eyes. Of coarse, we still have 4 games to play. If we drop the next 4 and Mark puts up another 10 INT's to top of 2009... well, I guess it's safe to say 09' can still have a crash landing.

Looking to next year I see our defensive line as our #1 priority. I would list our area's on need as follows: #1 RE... #2 RT... #3 DT... #4 RB... #5 TE... #6 ROLB. We have really neglected our defensive line in the draft for quite a while. There is one player who is currently on the roster that I am concerned about moving forward. I see him as the key to our offense and he is our most talented overall player next to Revis.

His wears #17 and he is currently one big question mark. Edwards is a rare talent, and he can change a game in one play. The main knock on him from day one has been his dedication to his craft. He is currently in an ideal situation. 2010 will define Edwards career. He will either use this offseason as a chance to finally focus himself on becoming an elite WR once and for all... or... he will half-ass his way through the OTA's and training camp and his career will start to fade into irrelevance for good. Someone needs to get in this players face and make him realize he is at the crossroads of his football life.

I would love to see us evolve into a spread offense with Edwards and Clowney out wide, Cotchery in the slot and Keller at TE. A single back formation with our current O-line up front would be pretty scary. We still need a big TE to compliment Keller and another young RB, but the offense is pretty well stacked.

Sanchez needs to finish well, and the powers that be need to do a complete evaluation of our current roster over the next 4 weeks. Players like Rhodes need to be purged from this squad and a few more hungry, young pieces to the puzzle have to be added.