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Sunday, August 23, 2015

2 preseason games in the bag... and how to find a franchise QB



A lot has happened since my last post about Geno Smith. I have been saying for a while now that he is an Anti-Leader. Well, he proved it by doing something very un-QB-like and getting into a squabble with a guy in our locker room who obviously hits much harder than he does. Geno's jaw is broken and I couldn't be happier. I hope some other QB takes the reigns and he never gets his job back.

But I've wasted more than enough energy talking about this piece of garbage. On to the players who are actually on the field.

We have completed a few weeks of training camp and 2 preseason games.

The first preseason game was a disaster. Our defense looked lost and our offense looked like they had never played football before in their lives. Fitzpatrick is a simple dink & dunk, old, journeymen QB who is way past his prime. He was underwhelming in both games.

However, Bryce Petty, the guy I ranked as the 2nd best QB in this years draft actually showed some signs of life in game 2. He was shell shocked in the first game, and he openly admitted not being prepared mentally to play. He said that he was not nervous the week heading into the game, but when he ran out on the field for the first snap he panicked. Recognizing what had happened he prepared himself differently this week and promised he's be more poised. He certainly was.

I must say I was impressed. I felt 100% confident after watching him week 1 that he absolutely needed to sit his rookie season and learn. But after his performance week 2 vs. the Falcons I truly wonder if he can contribute this season. I have no issue with replicating what the Giants did in 04' with Eli. Let him sit and start the veteran the first 6 to 8 games of the season. If it looks like the playoffs are out of reach then throw Petty in there and lets see what he can do.

The only problem with this plan is Geno Smith. If Fitz is lackluster, which we can almost bank on, by the beginning of October Geno will be in there. And God forbid he actually show some signs of life. Then next year we will have a comp between Smith and Petty. We may also use a high draft pick on a QB. All of this is so illogical. There needs to be a systematic approach to evaluating QB's with the intent of establishing a franchise guy like Luck, Wilson, Rivers, Rodgers and so on.

This is how we should handle the QB situation for 2015. Fitz is told he starts the first 4 games no matter what. There needs to be a little stability for any starter. Give him 4 full games and see what he has left in the tank. If we are winning obviously we keep riding the beard for as long as we can. Most likely he will be unimpressive. So the next move is giving Geno 4 games. No matter what, let the guy show what he can do with these new weapons. I'm sure he will also struggle. He will have so much rust coming off a 6-8 week layoff. He's not prepared when he is actively playing, I can't imagine the train wreck he will be jumping in after 4 or 5 games. By mid-season, if we are below .500, we HAVE TO get Petty out on the field. If he shows the "magic" that is required to win in this league then we can dump Geno in the offseason and not waste a draft pick on a QB. Maybe instead we can get Petty a RT, HB and or WR with our 1st rounder.

On the other hand if Petty also looks horrid with 6 to 8 games to prove himself then we know that when the 2016 offseason starts we have one objective: Find a high quality starting QB via trade or the draft. The whole idea of evaluation is to have a clear picture of who you have at any given position. You must see players in REAL games to really know if they are a keeper. At any position besides QB it's pretty easy to rotate guys and see them in different scenarios. Our problem has been giving way too much time to guys like Sanchez and Smith who show that they can only be quality back ups. You have to keep churning through guys until a Russell Wilson type player emerges. Guys like Brady, Wilson, Favre, Montana and Romo were not 1st round draft picks. But, once they got a chance to start it was readily apparent that they had "it". WE NEED TO FIND A GUY WITH "IT". And there is no clear place to look, only a clear method.

Enough about QB, there were some other interesting stand out's during our first couple of preseason games. First I will mention Ivory, Powell and Stacy. PERFECT 3 headed monster. I see no way that Ridley makes this squad. I think Richardson goes back to the practice squad as insurance and we ride these 3 backs all season. Ivory is a grinder, Powell is explosive and doesn't need a lot of touches to get hot. he comes right off the bench and is ready. Stacy has outstanding vision and can drop his shoulder to get the extra 2 or 3 yards at the end of a run. Love these 3.

I am deeply disappointed by Jeremy Kerly. I have championed this guy since his rookie season and was thrilled he got a 4 year extension. Sadly he has turned into a guy who has lost his fire. He got paid and he doesn't want to compete anymore. He's been openly crying to the press because he is in a competition for the slot WR spot. He feels "he has already earned" that position. Another guy Rex ruined, just like Richardson. We have an exciting group of WR's in camp including a true #1, maybe the best #2 in the business, at least 3 high quality candidates for the slot and a early 2nd round pick who will be excellent at stretching the field  if he ever gets on it. Kerly better wake up and smell the coffee.

Our 3rd round pick Mauldin  looks a bit shaky. He is a high motor guy with size and strength, but his instincts are lacking. He over pursues on every play and usually ends up missing the tackle. Same for last years 1st round pick Calvin Pryor. This guy is almost too aggressive. I like Jarrett way more to start alongside Gilchrest. But it's hard to bench a 1st round pick in year 2 of their career.

Milliner is injured yet again. I think it's time to move on with him. Sadly our top 4 draft picks of the last 2 years could easily not be contributing when the regular season starts. We know that Sheldon. Dee and Geno are out, and Pryor could get benched. Very, very sad.

Something that is not sad is the play of Leonard Williams. My God, this kid is the real deal. If only he could throw the ball LOL

2015 is a new year. Patience is required. We understand that we are at least a year or two from being a contender. I just hope that Bowles and Mac last long enough to see their work through.

Tuesday, August 4, 2015

Geno Smith: it's starting to look like another year wasted

So I hate Geno Smith's guts with a deep seeded passion in my soul. And that's the nicest way I could put it. He's everything you don't want in a QB. Lazy, undedicated, (which both equal) inconsistent, and lacking the proper cognitive speed to perform at the NFL level. The game simply moves too fast for him.

However, as each summer day passes, and training camp also continues to grind away, it seems more and more like it's going to be another wasted year with this loser as "our guy". A guy who doesn't show up to a meeting the night before a game, a guy who flips off his own fans in his home stadium after he plays horrible and they boo him (how dare they), a guy with 30 starts under his belt as well as a losing record and a terrible TD to INT ratio and a career completion percentage in he mid 50's.

I can't figure out why the new regime would stick with a guy who would cost us very little to cut. Maybe they just couldn't make a move to improve this position. Maybe they did fight for Foles, maybe they did try to pry Rivers away from northern CA, maybe they did try to trade up for Winston. Or maybe not. Either way, Fitz looks like he's washed up so far in camp, and Petty is nowhere near ready to be a starter.

So since #7 is the best of what's around, why not focus on the few positives he brings to the table.

First and foremost he has a delusional view of himself. That's actually a pro when talking about a QB. Any guy who's going to step behind the center in this league and attempt to lead his team to victory has to believe he is the best player on the field. Even if Manning or Brady is on the other sideline that week, he has to see himself as the man. Geno has this.

He has made some boneheaded PR mistakes in his first couple of years, but when he speaks to the press after games  he sounds like a relatively smart professional athlete. He says all the right things in those hard to navigate post game pressers. If you think that's so easy look at guys like RG III who cant get their foot out of their mouth.

He has a strong arm. Not top 5 in the league, but pretty damn strong. His accuracy and consistency is putrid, but he can toss the ball when he needs to.

His teammates seem to like him. Haven't heard a bad word that I can remember where anyone threw him under the bus. I would assume he's a decent locker room guy, and I doubt he struggles commanding the huddle.

He's durable. Couple of minor bumps and bruises, but nothing major. And I have seen him take some HUGE hits. He is built solid.

There's very little about his on the field game I can compliment, however there is one thing he does very well, and has done very well since his first start. He really knows when to tuck the ball and run and when to stand in the pocket and throw. I very rarely have seen him elect to become a runner on a play and not have it yield at least 5 or 6 yards. Most times its a first down. He also knows when the journey is over and gets out of bounds or slides most times. He's won us a few games because of this. It's very instinctive with him and should be developed (especially in the red zone). He's sneaky mobile, but he obvious sees himself as a passer first. That's perfect in the NFL.

Finally, his passer rating, completion percentage and TD to INT ratio all improved in year 2. Not much, but nonetheless they got better. A glimmer of hope? Not for this grizzly old Jets fan, but maybe you youngsters aren't totally jaded and can still dream.

Geno has an outstanding Offensive Coordinator, a Head Coach who will not make excuses for him or tolerate a lackadaisical approach, a GM who surrounded him with all the talent he could ask for,  including the benefit of what will be a pretty formidable defense. A dominate D can help rescue a turnover prone QB from the abyss from time to time.

You are in a perfect situation Geno. The bright lights of the NFL's biggest media market are on you. Will you step up? Suck as much air as possible into those gigantic gaping nostrils and feed your brain with oxygen... Maybe then the light bulb will go off and you will not let the opportunity of a lifetime slip away.