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Sunday, November 24, 2013

One year later...

It's been one year since my last post. I decided I wouldn't post anything or take the NY Jets seriously until Rex Ryan is gone. I feel exactly the same today as I did 53 weeks ago. I thought I would check in and break from my blogging hunger strike for a state-of-the-union.

As an organization we are simply spinning our wheels by sticking with people like Rex Ryan, Terry Bradway and the rest of this coaching staff and scouting department. Woody Johnson's half-measures have held the Jets back for over a decade. We "demoted" our general manager to head of scouting (Bradway), then fired our head coach (Mangini) but kept the GM and OC, then fired the GM (Tanenbaum) but kept the head coach... but lost both of his coordinators. SMH

It's time to clean house and that's exactly what I said last year at this time. I really like our new GM John Idzik. He's an ivy league guy who comes from a football family. To run a team you need a GM who is always the smartest guy in the room and who has been around the game for his whole life. With Idzik we have that. He was served a steaming shit sandwich when he took over this past offseason. A bunch of overpriced, under-motivated handcuff cap disasters (no need to list the names, we all know who they are). A team that had hit an all-time low respect wise. A coach who had one foot in the grave. No QB, no #1 WR, no #1 RB, holes on the O-line and no threat at TE. So basically no offense and no cap money to sign any game changing FA's. And the defense was a C+ squad at best.

Wow, it looked like we were heading for a 2 or 3 win season. And nobody could have blamed our new GM. Instead Idzik signed Marty Morehinweg as OC, brought in Willie Colon to shore up the RG position, Kellen Winslow at TE, traded for Chris Ivory, drafted Brian Winters at LG, traded Revis for a 1st rounder and used the pick to draft Sheldon Richardson to start opposite Wilkerson and at the same time freeing up Couples to move to ROLB. He also drafted Dee Milliner who has unlimited upside, took Geno Smith in the 2nd round who won 5 of his 1st 9 games as a rookie starter and scored a FB in the 7th round who has started every game this season.

He also added players like WR David Nelson, return specialist Josh Cribbs and future HOF'er Ed Reed during the season as injuries piled up. We were able to beat teams like Atlanta, New England, and New Orleans and were 5-4 heading into the bye. Idzik deserves the credit for what has gone well. He inherited Ryan and obviously made sure he used him in the capacity in which he should be used... as a defensive coordinator. Ryan runs our defense and calls the plays. As a result the defense has been very impactful. No one can deny the RR is one of the best defensive minds in the game. He has almost zero involvement with the offense.

This is not ideal, but because Woody refused to make wholesale changes Idzik has had no choice but to work with what he has. Since the bye we have dropped 2 straight, blow out losses from two very poor AFC teams and now we are below .500 heading into the last 5 games of the season. Our rookie signal caller has thrown 1 TD and 10 INT's over the past 5 weeks.

This is where you need a HC, and instead we are asking our glorified DC to decide what to do here. Geno Smith has shown some promise this year. He can make plays with his feet, he has a powerful arm and good deep accuracy, he (much to my surprise) is excellent with the press and media, always saying the right thing, and he has the natural persona of a leader. He's very level headed and has led his team back from 4th quarter deficits in all of his 5 wins this year.

BUT, starting with the Cinicinatti game it became obvious the he was struggling. We beat New Orleans but Geno had little to do with it. Vs. Buffalo and the Ravens we put a leash on #7 and he has still managed to turn the ball over and has made our offense a complete non-issue for opposing teams. He was wildly inconsistent all year, and by halftime of the Bills game it was an obvious decision to pull him and give Simms the start for the 2nd half. I think 31 other HC's would have tried to salvage that game against a division rival who is also starting a rookie. Instead Ryan let Geno go out and throw 4 INT's and also lose a fumble before putting Simms in when the game was out of reach.

In the post game presser Ryan announces that Geno is the starter next week. Without discussing it with the GM or the OC he just comes out, opens his fat pie hole and vomits his unwavering support for a player that has scored a solid grade of 'F' over a 5 game span. This sends a horrible message to everyone in the organization and hurts Smith's development instead of helping him. Ryan doesn't understand basic big picture issues. The #1 mission of the NY Jets is finding a franchise QB. We have 2 young QB's on the roster to evaluate this year. We have seen everything that Geno has to offer as a rookie and not only is he doing NOTHING to help us win the staff has shown no confidence in letting him throw the ball. As soon as we are down by 10 the game is over and our opponents know it. There is nothing to be gained by playing him the last 5 games.

A decision should have been made mid game vs. Buffalo to make a change and see if Simms can #1) give our offense a spark so we can try to keep winning and make a run at the post season, and #2) Evaluate what we have in the young Simms and try to see what our plan will be going into the offseason regarding the all important QB spot. Guys like Tony Romo, Russell Wilson and the great Tom Brady were not bluechip draft picks, they are guys who got a chance to come in off the bench and became the face of their respective franchises.  Ryan is not a chess guy, he's all checkers. This is where it becomes obvious that an NFL team needs a CEO style head coach and not a coordinator who plays his HC role like he plays his roles in Adam Sandler movies.

Ryan will keep Smith in until we are 5-8 and out of the playoff hunt. This will be the 3rd consecutive year he has lost his team in the 2nd half of the season and the worst part is we won't get a fair look at Simms until the whole team has given up and Holmes is having temper tantrums in the huddle, sideline, locker room, and press conferences. So going into the offseason we will have a completely shell shocked Geno Smith and a huge question mark in Simms. We will most likely finish 7-9, mid 1st round pick and another pointless season in the books.

When this season ends Woody needs to give 100% control to Idzik. First thing he would do is fire Ryan, I guarantee. Next move would be to dump Bradway and bring in his own front office. That's a good start.

What I would do in 2014 is this:

Make a huge $$$ run at John Gruden. Idzik was in the Bucs front office when Gruden led the Bucs to the Super Bowl. Winning a championship together is a huge bond. Gruden is a CEO style coach who knows how to create a winning culture. This situation is so similar to the one Gruden walked into at Tampa. A dominate defense and a good (not great) O-line designed to run the ball. When he arrived in Tampa he was replacing a coach who was loved in the locker room and he challenged the defense to start creating turnovers and scoring. He could turn things around and has a big enough personality to erase Rex Ryan from the NY sports world forever.

I'd fire anyone that wasn't brought in by Idzik in the front office and coaching staff. If you land Gruden I would retain Morehenwig because you would have 2 of the top west coast offensive minds in the world running that squad. Marty is so good at what he does, Gruden could be a full time head coach.

Defensively I'd bring in Monty Kiffin. He will probably be let go by Dallas considering his defense is the worst in the league this year. He tried to overhaul Dallas's 3-4 defense and convert it to a Tampa 2. However, they didn't have the proper personnel and they were more cap strapped than us this past offseason. Kiffin had no chance in Dallas. I'd reunite him with Gruden and I'd build a Tampa 2 around a D-line of Richardson and Couples at DE and Harrison and Wilkerson at NT and DT. That front 4 would be crazy. Harris and Davis at LB would be a good fit, and Milliner and Wilson would probably excel in a Tampa 2 secondary. Furthermore, we will have as much as 40 million in cap room this offseason so filling in the defense with a few FA's that fit the new defensive scheme will be very doable.

As for players, we can start with QB. Smith will cost us less than 1 million a year for the next 3 seasons. That's normal back up money. That gives time to develop this player. But, we need to make a move for a veteran who can help us win now and keep Geno for the future. I would not draft a QB. 3 veterans will probably be available. I think the Bears let Cutler walk and Vick will also be available as a FA. I wouldn't touch either of these guys with a 10 foot pole. The 3rd QB who will probably be available is Big Ben from Pittsburgh... via trade. I'd give up our 1st rounder this year that will probably fall between 14-18 for an established SB champ with a some gas left in the tank. The Steelers won't publicly shop Big Ben, but they have had many issues with him over the years, they know he's past his prime and they have a huge rebuilding project in western Pennsylvania. Their defense needs a rebuild, their offense is lacking playmakers and Ben is costing them big $$$ and will be heading into the last year of his contract. This is the time to move him and gain cap room and draft picks.

If we landed Ben, I would explore keeping Holmes and reuniting them. Otherwise the 1st player I cut is Holmes, and not just to save cap room. Hate him with a passion... but he can do things that very few humans can do. With one minute left, down by 4 points, with your season on the line, Holmes suddenly becomes a top 5 WR in this league.

Obviously Sanchez is cut which brings huge cap savings to the Jets. As a sidebar, I think Denver or Dallas would be great places for him to land. But I don't really care =)

I'd try to keep this O-line together. Colon is close to hitting the wall but I think he has one good year left. Plus he knows Ben and how he moves in the pocket. Winters is looking good and Howard has established himself as a solid RT.

I'd hold onto Nelson, Kerley, Hill, Cumberland, Winslow, Ivory and Powell.

There are some interesting FA WR's coming up in 2014, and we will have the money to spend. I'd make a move for Kenny Britt and Jeremy Macklin. Britt is a Jersey guy, and maybe coming home could settle him down. Britt, Hill, Macklin and Kerley could be a formidable receiving corps. Hill has been a huge disappointment, but he needs some other legitimate threats out there to open things up for him. Haven't given up on him yet.

Defensively we need one or two good/fast young tampa 2 LB's (if we make the switch) and a game changing safety to play alongside Antonio Allen.

As for the draft, if we dump our 1st rounder on Roethisberger I wouldn't take a WR, QB or pass rusher with our 2nd rounder. I would try to find some elite talent at RB, TE or Safety with that pick. My 1st three picks would cover those positions. How often do you find a young Super Bowl champion coach and a champion QB available to spark your franchise?

Big Ben wouldn't be my long term solution. But Gruden had such success with Gannon at the end of his career, I think he would help us win while we build a talented squad to possibly hand off to Geno in 2 to 3 years.

Blow it up WOODY!!!!