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Tuesday, January 20, 2015

Just a preliminary sketch of the offseason...

So we have needs at RT, RG, WR, HB, FB, LOLB, ROLB, CB, FS... and did I miss anything??? Oh yeah QB.

That's a ton of holes to fill. Obviously we will need to utilize free agents, the draft and most likely a trade or two as well.

The first thing you need to do is prioritize positions. You have to look at what impact that particular position has on the outcome of the game and how your team is currently stocked at it. For example, WR is pretty darn important in todays NFL, but we have three rock solid guy in Harvin, Decker and Kerly. They all compliment each other well, plus we have Shaq Evans who we haven't even seen on the field yet. But there is no question we need to add to this squad. So the WR position will probably be towards the top of the list, but most likely not top 3.

So I would list our priorities as follows:

  • QB (no question everything begins and ends with the man behind center)
  • CB (we don't even have a #2 quality guy on our roster. Milliner has to be looked at as an extra player right now since he can't stay healthy. I doubt he will ever be reliable physically. We need a significant impact rookie as well as a top flight FA and a solid journeyman veteran to team up with McDougle and #27)
  • LOLB (pass rushers are a rare and valuable like diamonds. We have zero threats on the outside right now)
  • WR (We have a #2 in Decker, a sure handed slot guy in Kerley and a jack of all trades, x-factor style player in Harvin. What's missing? A true #1)
  • RT (we need to fix this horrible O-line, but we do have 2 solid veterans and 1 or 2 promising young players. Nonetheless, if we hold onto Brick one more year we can bring in a top draft pick at this position and let him play RT his rookie year and then move him to the blind side in 2016)
  • RG (there are some amazing free agents coming on the market. We need to spend here)
  • HB (Ivory is a stop gap, I think we can get 2 solid years out of him, but he is limited speed-wise. He does provide the opportunity to bring in a mid round guy and let him learn. We don't need a high priced free agent, we need some youth at this position. I also hope we re-sign Powell)
  • FS (we need someone to play with Pryor and help rebuild our horrendous secondary. Ideally a free agent)
  • ROLB (I see a bunch of talented free agents out there who can step in and give us some much needed speed at this position. One major problem with our whole defensive structure is that we haven't had any OLB's who are worth anything in coverage. It makes our defense very 2 dimensional. Everyone knows they aren't dropping into coverage. Also Coples needs to be moved back to the D-line, he is NOT a LB)
  • FB (Super overlooked, but very important to an offense that plays outdoors in the northeast and needs to be able to run the ball. If you find one who also has good hands it can seriously impact your offense)

It's impossible at this stage to predict which players will go where in the draft, and who will actually hit the free agency market. You can't lay down a rock solid blueprint, but you can begin to sketch the offseason two weeks before the Super Bowl. This will change as the weeks and months progress, but this is how I see it today.

Starting with QB I think the solution is Nick Foles. He has less than 30 starts, but I have seen enough to feel he is the real deal, and he is certainly the best QB available this offseason. He can be at least as good as Flacco, and Jersey Joe has a ring. He won't be a free agent, but he will be available via trade. There are a lot of scenarios on how we could land him, the best for the NY Jets would be trading next years 2nd rounder for him. I don't think anyone would give Philly a 1st rounder for him, so next years 2nd round pick is solid compensation. It's an outside shot this could happen, but frankly we desperately need every one of our picks this year, especially the top 3. That being said, I'd go as high as this years second if we had to... or even take Mariota at #6 and trade him to Philly for Foles and a few draft picks. Foles and Philly's 2nd and 5th rounders' would do it for me. Chip Kelly is new to negotiating personnel moves. That may be good or bad for us. Either way Foles is the answer.

Next we move to CB. Antonio Cromartie seems like he would make sense. He fits the journeyman veteran spot I mentioned. He can play #2, or in the nickel. I actually think he could be a great nickel back because he s very opportunistic when it comes to INT's. Letting him focus on TE's and slot guys could be good. Milliner and McDougle may have an impact, but we need a top flight, elite FA. And, I'm not hoping for Revis. Just not interested. As for a true #1 I don't see one. But a combo of Perrish Cox from the 49ers and  Kareem Jackson from the Texans combined with the other 3 guys I just mentioned could be a pretty damn solid CB group.

The LOLB spot should be filled by none other than Shayne Ray. This kid is a freak of nature. He is so athletic, fast, prototype 3-4 LB size and he is a former college team mate of Sheldon Richardson. Talk about a perfect way for a rookie to make the transition into the pros. The two of them back together would be sick. We would need to use our #6 overall pick on him, and he has everything you look for in a top 10 pick. There will be more on him when I post specifically about the draft, but this kid is the man!

WR up next. The 2015 draft is not the 2014 draft. I doubt there will be #1 quality guys available in the early 2nd round and I just used our #1 pick on Ray. However there will be some real talent out there in the free agent market. One of the byproducts of an amazing WR draft last year is a great FA class this year at the same position. I think Josh Gordon will be up for grabs, and boy is he a HUGE RISK. This kid is a mess off the field and a mega star on it. He changes games, he totally changes the defenses approach, and he is worth a roll of the dice. You don't win Super Bowls without taking a few calculated risks. With a ton of cap room this offseason, a properly structured contract and the right enviorment could fix this kid and give us the perfect compliment to Decker, Kerly, and Amaro.

I am not a proponent of keeping Percy Harvin, and if we land Gordon we don't need him. Harivn is a solid player, but there is a lot of talk about him being a cancer in the locker room and he is very injury prone. We have enough injury prone players on this roster. If we could trade him for anything I would take it, but his contract is prohibitive to trades and perfect for cutting him. He also has no incentive to restructure. If we cut him he will be signed quickly for good money and we have no QB, so why would he want to stay here?

At the RT spot I like the idea of an early 2nd rounder. La'el Collins from LSU is the perfect guy. He can play guard or RT day one and can develop into a solid LT when D'Brick moves on. 6'5" and 320 lbs, with quick feet and great durability. So I just spent our top 2 picks.

At the RG spot Mike Iupati from the 49ers is the no-brainer solution. He's 27 and can be the bridge that will help the transition from Mangold and D'Brick to our younger guys over the next few years. We have the cash, and this is how you spend it. He's simply one of the top 3 players at his position. Perfect fit.

At HB we have Ivory and Powell. Ivory has 2 rock solid years left, but he isn't an all purpose back. Powell is a free agent and I love him as a 3rd down back. He runs hard, he's elusive and he has great hands. Letting him walk would be a mistake. As for our 3rd back, now that Chan Gailey has signed as our OC everyone wants to see CJ Spiller as a Jet. Haven't we already been burned by a washed up free agent known as CJ?? Spiller is always hurt and is a fumble machine. NO THANK YOU.

I want either Duke Johnson from Miami or Jay Ajai from Boise St. Both are future #1 guys IMHO. For 3 or 4 years smart teams have been landing gems in the mid rounds at the HB position. I want in on that party. We tried it once with Greene, and that sucked. I want a young guy who can contribute year one and emerge year two like Bell from Pittsburgh. One of these two rookies should hopefully be on the board with the #6 pick of the 3rd round, and if we have to move up a few spots to the late 2nd I am all for it. They are both future superstars.

There are a ton of outstanding veteran FS prospects that will be on the market this year. I'd like to see Dwight Lowery back on the Jets in 2015 to provide depth with Jaquan Jarrett, but for the starting spot Devin McCourty is my guy. He's a ball hawk and would fit so well with Bowles. I have a strong feeling the Pats let him hit the market and I'd love to have him. He's the exact opposite of Pryor and they would be a nice pair in the defensive backfield.

At ROLB I would go again with a free agent for the starting spot. In order of my interest I like Jerry Hughes, Jason Worilds and Sam Acho. I wanted to draft Jerry Hughes way back when, and he finally has grown into the player I hoped he would be. There is about a 30% chance the Bills let him walk. He's the best fit for us. Combined with Ray, Davis and Harris we would have the most dynamic LB corps in the league. Worilds would be great too, but there is probably a 25% chance the Steelers let him walk. But I can hope. Sam Acho is almost a lock to be a Jet in 2015. He has worked with Bowles and they will reunite here in NY. He is not the most impactful pass rusher but he is truly an all around LB. An upgrade from what we had in 2014. I also think he could move to ILB once Harris is gone in 2016 and play alongside Davis.

Finally we have the FB position. Hynoski from the Giants is the best all around FB on the market this year. I'd also love John Kuhn but Green Bay won't part with him. I think we should look in the draft for an impact player at this position as well as bring back Bohanan and Conner to camp. I can't say enough how important it is to have the right guy at FB.

One final move I would be very open to is trading either Coples or Wilkerson. As I mentioned (and Coples proved this year) he is simply not an OLB. I think he can be very effective back on the line with his hand in the dirt. Wilkerson is talented, but he will be demanding a huge contract. With Richardson and Coples in place we have no need for Mo. If we do extend him then we will have 3 high end defensive ends and won't be able to resign them all. Now is the time to make a move, especially considering that Mo has some significant trade value. I believe we could land a late 2nd rounder from a needy team like the Falcons. That would work out perfect for drafting one of the RB's I'm interested in this year.

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