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Saturday, February 14, 2015

Fundamentals of building an NFL team...

 
dis·ci·pline
ˈdisəplən/
:train oneself to do something in a controlled and habitual way.

There are certain core fundamentals that I believe in regarding building an NFL team. After a disastrous 2014 season, which was the 4th consecutive year without a playoff birth, many fans will be tempted to make desperation moves. Luckily fans don't run the team, but the question is this... Will our rookie GM, HC and embattled owner act on this same desperation and make poor decisions?

First of all, the two types of players you avoid when drafting are stupid players and injury prone players. The infamous Idzik era proved that by chasing and reaching for tempting game changers like Milliner and McDougle. If they can't stay healthy in college they have zero chance in the pros. Milliner could have been a #1 overall pick in the 2013 draft if it wasn't for his injury issues. Same with McDougle... talent wise he's a late 1st/ early 2nd .... without the injuries.

The 2nd thing on my list..... I am a big believer that spending big on aging defensive backs ends up being a waste of money 99.9% of the time. You can point to countless examples. Darrell Revis will most likely not even hit the market. But if he does, signing him here would be a huge mistake. The time to sign him to a long term extension was after the 2010 season. And the time to sign him to a short term deal with an option was last offseason, which is exactly what the Pats did. For us to land him we are going to have to pay him over 12 million a year and probably commit for 3 years. There is no question that by next year that contract will be prohibitive and suffocate us. CB's hit the wall with zero warning, just like HB's. He has also endured a major injury. That limits his long term milage as well. As tempting as it is, signing him for anything more than a 1 year deal will be a waste.

Next I have a very clear blueprint for a franchise QB... especially one that will be drafted high and play in NYC. I hate to say it, but Eli Manning is the prototype. First you need the intangibles. Even keel personality, humble but fearless, smart calm presence with the media, high character, and a guy who never allows the moment to be too big for him. Second you need pro style experince in college. Running gymicky/ spread/ option style systems that don't translate are a killer. If a guy is drafted in the top 10, in NYC, they will be expected to play at some point their rookie year. These option QB's rarely figure it out, but if they do they need time to sit and learn. Looking at Winston and Mariota they are both text book busts in the world of NY football.

Winston is a phenomenon on the field. He has a lot of Cam Netwon in him as well as the ability to anticipate throws and routes like Andrew Luck. Combined with a cannon arm he is a dream come true. But off the field he is a disaster. Under the bright lights of the big city and the crazy scrutiny that comes with them Winston will be a bigger bust than Jamarcus Russell. As an organization we need to resist the temptation to take this kid, and it will be hard becuase the free agent market is horrid.

As for Mariota he is the exact opposite. He's a guy who is exactly what every team dreams about intangibles wise, but he will be a huge project on the field. I could see him starting year 2 at some point like Kapernick did, but Kap was not a top 10 pick. Fans won't be patient that long.

Another temptation will be to drastically over pay a player just to plug a hole. Percy Harvin is scheduled to make 10 million this year, and frankly we can afford it. We have an embarrassment of riches salary cap wise in 2015. But players need to get what they are worth. It will have long lasting ramifications in our locker room if we pay this guy double his value. Especially if this bad attitude that has been rumored with Percy is true. Again, we need to be disciplined.

Finally, championship teams are built through the draft. NO JETS FAN wants to hear this right now. It's a slow process, and when the drafts are botched (like the Jets have done over and over and over) it is tempting to just go out and spend like drunken sailors on players who other teams let walk (and they let them walk for significant reasons... every one of them). I am not against being aggressive in this years free agent market. With 40- 50 million available it would be absurd to not be. But we have to spend wisely. And we can't trade away draft picks with only our 2015 roster in mind.

A few years back in 2006 and 2007 we landed 4 high profile players and a bunch of solid role players via the draft. A couple of smart trades and free agent moves and we were in back to back AFCCG's. We need to start again, we need to find elite guys like Mangold, Harris, Revis & D'Brick in the draft as well as solid role players like Cotchery, Rhodes, Keller, Eric Smith... ect. And we need to trade for guys like Cromartie & Thomas Jones and sign free agents like LT, Faneca and Woody.

Please look at what the Raiders did last year. They gave money to anyone that would take it. And they did worse than us, and we were terrible. However, they drafted two players who they can build around for years in Mack and Carr. That's where we want to be next year. 2 to 3 strong building blocks in this years draft, combined with the handful of talent we have landed the last 2 drafts can have us back in the final 4 by 2017 ;)

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