... and the picture comes into focus. I have some very strong beliefs regarding the combine.
#1) Watch the tape of what the player did on the field. If he is a LB and he was tossed around by O-linemen, I can careless how many times he benches 225lbs.
#2) The 40 yard dash is something that can be coached and manipulated, and is not very useful when gauging a players true football speed. There are a lot of other tests and drills that are hard to fake, but the management teams of these soon to be wealthy athletes take them and put them in Combine boot camp. They teach all the fundamentals that can trim major time off of a 40. Again, its the tape that matters. If a CB is getting beat deep play after play, a 4.35 40 is useless.
#3) Avoid the combine freak like the plague. Guys gain 20-25lbs in 60 days leading up to the combine, they prepare and rehearse answers to tough questions... it's all a show. I don't care if a QB can dominate the white board, if you haven't seen tape of them reading defense it's all memorized chatter. If they are throwing a bunch of picks in college, they will certainly struggle with the speed and savvy of NFL DB's. It's not about answering it in the class room on the board, it's about processing it at full speed in fractions of seconds. I'm not saying a player needs to be fully developed to draft them, but don't try and make a ho a housewife.
#4) The most valuable part of the whole combine is the medical analysis. If a player refuses any part of the thorough medical examination process in Indy he's off my board.
By the time the combine takes place a solid scouting department should have their draft boards sketched out in detail. Of coarse it needs to be in pencil, obviously things will come up in the players pro days, individual work outs and interviews, and off the field that will influence these rankings in the 3 big months leading into the draft (Feb, March, April). But, if you watched the tape and studied a players intangibles off the field regarding their upbringing and personal life, a faster than expected 40 shouldn't move them up your board one spot.
The biggest advantages of the combine are the aforementioned medical screenings, and the emergence of players from small schools who were probably overlooked. You can find a real diamond in the rough via this process. It's also very effective when searching for the cream of the crop amongst potential undrafted rookie FA's.
That being said, Mariota, Winston, Beasley, White, Cooper, Ray, Fowler Jr.... these guys are who they are. And we all know who they are. They haven't flown under the radar and their is ample tape to see what they can do on a football field.
Players who I liked before the combine and still like are:
RB: Duke Johnson, Jay Ajai, Josh Robinson. Johnson was a top prospect and had a great showing, Ajai was a bit under the radar and had a great showing opening some eyes, and Robinson is under the radar and disappointed in the combine. I still like all 3.
WR: White, Dorsett and Green-Beckham. All 3 showed out at the combine. We all know the risks that come with Green-Beckham, not matter how well he interviewed. Nothing changed.
TE: Nick O'Leary. Not a huge need for us, but this guy was a beast this past weekend. He'd be a nice addition in the best player available scenario. I'd take him with the 3rd pick of the 3rd round in a heart beat.
O-line: Ali Marpet, La'el Collins, DJ Humphries. A guard and two tackles. All 3 are round 1/ round 2 talents. Collins stock has really sky rocketed. I liked him with the #38 overall pick when he was being looked at as a late 2nd early 3rd. At one point he made it into the top 10 in some projections, but he has seemed to settle in the range of spots 20-32. Which I agree with.
LB's: Shayne Ray, Fowler Jr., Kyle Emanuel. I believe Ray is the best LB for the NY Jets. Fowler is also a rare talent, but all things being equal Ray's connection to Sheldon Richardson puts him over the top. It will help Rays transition into the pros and help us resign Richardson down the road. Emanuel is more of a ILB, he's smart and well rounded. He and Demario Davis in the middle would be perfect in Coach Bowles 3-4 system.
There are a few guys I think will be busts (considering where they will be drafted) and I hope the Jets don't bite. Victor Beasley and Amari Cooper. Beasley is the text book combine freak. He gained 20 pounds in 2 months and benched 225lbs 35 times. He's the Vernon Gholston of the 2015 draft. I's take him late 2nd early 3rd, but he's going to be a top 15 pick, and not worth it. Cooper may develop into a productive #2 WR in a few years, but he is definitely going top 10, and I that's a wasted pick.
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