The honest answer is you have to get lucky. There has to be a perfect storm like what we saw in New England. A good coach with a chip on his shoulder who is not at all afraid to make the tough decisions. A talented guy who made a bad call with his college choice and didn't get to play enough to be drafted high... also with a chip on his shoulder. A franchise quality guy goes down with a major injury.... and the next thing you know... poof... you have a HOF QB and multiple Super Bowls.
Elway is the only clear cut situation where a team took a guy #1 overall, stuck with him no matter what and eventually made it to the top of the mountain (I don't count Indy because they dumped Peyton once he began to age). And it took a long time and a lot of patience in Denver. So even if we had the #1 overall pick, it means nothing.
I think the solution has been clearly illustrated by the Seahawks. They rolled through a lot of guys during Carrolls first few years. And they settled on a 5'11" 3rd rounder who was a one year starter in Wisconsin. Seriously? What they proved is you have to leave no stone unturned.
For some reason this organization has been all about crowning a guy and letting him flounder for years. We have essentially evaluated Sanchez and Smith over a 6 year span. That's crazy. That's about 100 games if you include the post season. In this day and age you need a clear QB comp in your preseason, and a guy needs to have a short leash during the season. We have had a few guys on the roster over the last few years that we never even looked at, and we have spent too much time with guys like Brunell and Vick as our back ups who do nothing to push the starter. Its been a horrid formula.
This offseason I have suggested some possibilities at QB. I like Clausen and Moore as stop gaps, I haven't totally given up on Geno, and I would also like to see Simms get a shot as well. In the draft we may take Mariota, and I was very high on this guy because of his intangibles, but the more I understand how much he has to learn on the field I just think it's a waste of a top 10 pick. I'd take him late 1st/ early 2nd like Bridgewater and Carr went last year. But he won't last that long because it's a weak QB draft. This is a Alex Smith year, not a Eli/ Big Ben year. One guy who we can probably land in the 4th or 5th who I like is Bryan Bennett. I mentioned him a few weeks ago.
There are a few other guys who are out there who are untested prospects. Brock Osweiler is a 6'7" former 2nd round pick who has been wasting away on the bench in Denver just like Rodgers did in Green Bay. We could probably land him for a conditional draft pick now that Peyton has signed on for another year.
The only true solution this year to land a guy who could be a legitimate long term franchise guy is working out a trade for Nick Foles. I have been talking about this since December. Chip Kelly has shown he is rebuilding his roster and isn't attached to any player he didn't bring in. So I am sure Foles is available. Unfortunately if we wait until the draft I think Tennessee trades out of the #2 spot and gets Foles. That's why we need to act now. The only way we attract high quality free agents this year is with Foles as QB, meaning it needs to happen now. Sadly I doubt it will.
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