First 4 rounds of the draft, 2 scenarios

So I have identified a number of players who I like in this years draft. Obviously the draft will have a lot to do with who we land in free agency and who we let leave for free agency.

I'm not going to go into great detail about what I would like to see the Jets do in free agency. Free agency is important, but every player who was allowed to hit the market by their previous team was allowed to do so for significant reasons. ALL OF THEM. Durability, bad attitudes, off the field concerns, age, .... they wouldn't hit the market if they were solid gold. Free agents aren't the foundation of a team, and The NY Jets need a foundation. That will come in this years draft. I hope.

I will just say, for now, that we need veteran savvy free agents in our secondary, O-line and LB corps. I'll list some names in the next few weeks.

As for the draft. I will list what moves I would make if we release Harvin and do not trade our #6 overall pick away, and another scenario where we keep Harvin and do trade our top pick. If we release Harvin we lose our 6th round pick, if we keep him we lose our 4th rounder.

The first scenario is pretty basic with everything saying status quo. its simply the #6 pick in the first 4 rounds. Nothing more nothing less.

Round #1- I'm listing more than one name because it's hard to say who will be left on the board at #6. This is my list in order of who I'd want. Kevin White, Shane Ray, Fowler Jr., Mariota

Round #2- I'd take either WR Dorsett from Miami or WR Green-Beckham if we don't land White with our first pick. If we do take White I'm going for an O-linemen like Koandjio from Alabama or Erving from Florida State.

Round #3- I want Duke Johnson or Jay Ajai at this spot. No question.

Round #4- I'd love to take TE Nick O'Leary here but I think he will be gone. If we can't move up to the late 3rd to land this talented TE I take a shot at QB Bryan Bennett from South Eastern Louisiana. He was Mariotas back up and transferred to a small school so he could get on the field. He is athletic, mobile and has a nice arm. He's a project player, but mid round QB's usually are. He has upside, could become a starter in a few years.

Scenario #2 involves trading our #6 pick for Nick Foles. I see Foles as our only real solution when trying to find a real franchise QB in 2015. If we can't land him we will go into camp with Geno, Simms, a rookie and maybe a guy like Matt Moore or Jimmy Clausen. Which means we won't be very competitive.

So I hope we take our #6 and trade it for the Eagles #20, Nick Foles and their 4th round pick. I think that could happen and it would help to replace the 4th rounder we would lose for keeping Harvin.

Round #1- (Number 20 overall). La'el Collins offensive tackle.
Round #2- Dorsett or Green-Beckham
Round #3- Johnson or Ajai
Round #4- (via trade with Philly)Kyle Emanuel ILB Great guy to pair with Davis in the middle.

...and for the record Bryan Bennett will probably still be available with our 5th round pick and I would land him there.

Scenario #2 would give us Foles, Ivory/Johnson, Harvin, Decker, Dorsett (or Green-Beckham), Kerly, Amaro, D'Brick, Mangold, Collins, Giacomini and hopefully a big name FA guard like Iupati from the 49ers.

That's a top 5 offense with Chan Gailey running the show. No matter how you look at it you will see my main focus in this draft is OFFENSE.

A day after the combine ends...

... and the picture comes into focus. I have some very strong beliefs regarding the combine.

#1) Watch the tape of what the player did on the field. If he is a LB and he was tossed around by O-linemen, I can careless how many times he benches 225lbs.

#2) The 40 yard dash is something that can be coached and manipulated, and is not very useful when gauging a players true football speed. There are a lot of other tests and drills that are hard to fake, but the management teams of these soon to be wealthy athletes take them and put them in Combine boot camp. They teach all the fundamentals that can trim major time off of a 40. Again, its the tape that matters. If a CB is getting beat deep play after play, a 4.35 40 is useless.

#3) Avoid the combine freak like the plague. Guys gain 20-25lbs in 60 days leading up to the combine, they prepare and rehearse answers to tough questions... it's all a show. I don't care if a QB can dominate the white board, if you haven't seen tape of them reading defense it's all memorized chatter. If they are throwing a bunch of picks in college, they will certainly struggle with the speed and savvy of NFL DB's. It's not about answering it in the class room on the board, it's about processing it at full speed in fractions of seconds. I'm not saying a player needs to be fully developed to draft them, but don't try and make a ho a housewife.

#4) The most valuable part of the whole combine is the medical analysis. If a player refuses any part of the thorough medical examination process in Indy he's off my board.

By the time the combine takes place a solid scouting department should have their draft boards sketched out in detail. Of coarse it needs to be in pencil, obviously things will come up in the players pro days, individual work outs and interviews, and off the field that will influence these rankings in the 3 big months leading into the draft (Feb, March, April). But, if you watched the tape and studied a players intangibles off the field regarding their upbringing and personal life, a faster than expected 40 shouldn't move them up your board one spot.

The biggest advantages of the combine are the aforementioned medical screenings, and the emergence of players from small schools who were probably overlooked. You can find a real diamond in the rough via this process. It's also very effective when searching for the cream of the crop amongst potential undrafted rookie FA's.

That being said, Mariota, Winston, Beasley, White, Cooper, Ray, Fowler Jr.... these guys are who they are. And we all know who they are. They haven't flown under the radar and their is ample tape to see what they can do on a football field.

Players who I liked before the combine and still like are:

RB: Duke Johnson, Jay Ajai, Josh Robinson. Johnson was a top prospect and had a great showing, Ajai was a bit under the radar and had a great showing opening some eyes, and Robinson is under the radar and disappointed in the combine. I still like all 3.

WR: White, Dorsett and Green-Beckham. All 3 showed out at the combine. We all know the risks that come with Green-Beckham, not matter how well he interviewed. Nothing changed.

TE: Nick O'Leary. Not a huge need for us, but this guy was a beast this past weekend. He'd be a nice addition in the best player available scenario. I'd take him with the 3rd pick of the 3rd round in a heart beat.

O-line: Ali Marpet, La'el Collins, DJ Humphries. A guard and two tackles. All 3 are round 1/ round 2 talents. Collins stock has really sky rocketed. I liked him with the #38 overall pick when he was being looked at as a late 2nd early 3rd. At one point he made it into the top 10 in some projections, but he has seemed to settle in the range of spots 20-32. Which I agree with.

LB's: Shayne Ray, Fowler Jr., Kyle Emanuel. I believe Ray is the best LB for the NY Jets. Fowler is also a rare talent, but all things being equal Ray's connection to Sheldon Richardson puts him over the top. It will help Rays transition into the pros and help us resign Richardson down the road. Emanuel is more of a ILB, he's smart and well rounded. He and Demario Davis in the middle would be perfect in Coach Bowles 3-4 system.

There are a few guys I think will be busts (considering where they will be drafted) and I hope the Jets don't bite. Victor Beasley and Amari Cooper. Beasley is the text book combine freak. He gained 20 pounds in 2 months and benched 225lbs 35 times. He's the Vernon Gholston of the 2015 draft. I's take him late 2nd early 3rd, but he's going to be a top 15 pick, and not worth it. Cooper may develop into a productive #2 WR in a few years, but he is definitely going top 10, and I that's a wasted pick.

Fundamentals of building an NFL team...

 

dis·ci·pline

ˈdisəplən/

:train oneself to do something in a controlled and habitual way.

There are certain core fundamentals that I believe in regarding building an NFL team. After a disastrous 2014 season, which was the 4th consecutive year without a playoff birth, many fans will be tempted to make desperation moves. Luckily fans don't run the team, but the question is this... Will our rookie GM, HC and embattled owner act on this same desperation and make poor decisions?

First of all, the two types of players you avoid when drafting are stupid players and injury prone players. The infamous Idzik era proved that by chasing and reaching for tempting game changers like Milliner and McDougle. If they can't stay healthy in college they have zero chance in the pros. Milliner could have been a #1 overall pick in the 2013 draft if it wasn't for his injury issues. Same with McDougle... talent wise he's a late 1st/ early 2nd .... without the injuries.

The 2nd thing on my list..... I am a big believer that spending big on aging defensive backs ends up being a waste of money 99.9% of the time. You can point to countless examples. Darrell Revis will most likely not even hit the market. But if he does, signing him here would be a huge mistake. The time to sign him to a long term extension was after the 2010 season. And the time to sign him to a short term deal with an option was last offseason, which is exactly what the Pats did. For us to land him we are going to have to pay him over 12 million a year and probably commit for 3 years. There is no question that by next year that contract will be prohibitive and suffocate us. CB's hit the wall with zero warning, just like HB's. He has also endured a major injury. That limits his long term milage as well. As tempting as it is, signing him for anything more than a 1 year deal will be a waste.

Next I have a very clear blueprint for a franchise QB... especially one that will be drafted high and play in NYC. I hate to say it, but Eli Manning is the prototype. First you need the intangibles. Even keel personality, humble but fearless, smart calm presence with the media, high character, and a guy who never allows the moment to be too big for him. Second you need pro style experince in college. Running gymicky/ spread/ option style systems that don't translate are a killer. If a guy is drafted in the top 10, in NYC, they will be expected to play at some point their rookie year. These option QB's rarely figure it out, but if they do they need time to sit and learn. Looking at Winston and Mariota they are both text book busts in the world of NY football.

Winston is a phenomenon on the field. He has a lot of Cam Netwon in him as well as the ability to anticipate throws and routes like Andrew Luck. Combined with a cannon arm he is a dream come true. But off the field he is a disaster. Under the bright lights of the big city and the crazy scrutiny that comes with them Winston will be a bigger bust than Jamarcus Russell. As an organization we need to resist the temptation to take this kid, and it will be hard becuase the free agent market is horrid.

As for Mariota he is the exact opposite. He's a guy who is exactly what every team dreams about intangibles wise, but he will be a huge project on the field. I could see him starting year 2 at some point like Kapernick did, but Kap was not a top 10 pick. Fans won't be patient that long.

Another temptation will be to drastically over pay a player just to plug a hole. Percy Harvin is scheduled to make 10 million this year, and frankly we can afford it. We have an embarrassment of riches salary cap wise in 2015. But players need to get what they are worth. It will have long lasting ramifications in our locker room if we pay this guy double his value. Especially if this bad attitude that has been rumored with Percy is true. Again, we need to be disciplined.

Finally, championship teams are built through the draft. NO JETS FAN wants to hear this right now. It's a slow process, and when the drafts are botched (like the Jets have done over and over and over) it is tempting to just go out and spend like drunken sailors on players who other teams let walk (and they let them walk for significant reasons... every one of them). I am not against being aggressive in this years free agent market. With 40- 50 million available it would be absurd to not be. But we have to spend wisely. And we can't trade away draft picks with only our 2015 roster in mind.

A few years back in 2006 and 2007 we landed 4 high profile players and a bunch of solid role players via the draft. A couple of smart trades and free agent moves and we were in back to back AFCCG's. We need to start again, we need to find elite guys like Mangold, Harris, Revis & D'Brick in the draft as well as solid role players like Cotchery, Rhodes, Keller, Eric Smith... ect. And we need to trade for guys like Cromartie & Thomas Jones and sign free agents like LT, Faneca and Woody.

Please look at what the Raiders did last year. They gave money to anyone that would take it. And they did worse than us, and we were terrible. However, they drafted two players who they can build around for years in Mack and Carr. That's where we want to be next year. 2 to 3 strong building blocks in this years draft, combined with the handful of talent we have landed the last 2 drafts can have us back in the final 4 by 2017 ;)