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Sunday, July 26, 2015

Parity in the NFL

I've always loved the NFL over any other sport and even college football because of how it's structured. Everything is about creating a level playing field. Look at last years final four. The media markets represented are very telling. Boston is an A- media market, Seattle is a B-, Indianapolis is a C and Green Bay????? They aren't rank-able. But all four had equal resources and cap money to spend. One of those 4 teams obviously had one unique advantage, but that's for another thread LOL

I've always believed that the talent gap between the team that wins the super bowl and the team with the worst record is very slight. Success or failure has a lot to do with how healthy your team was able to stay, how much chemistry they have and the quality of coaching. Another great part of the NFL's structure is the teams with the worst records get the top picks in the following draft. So we routinely see teams who are down and out back in the playoffs with a 1 or 2 year turn around.

That being said, this season looks like a true phenomenon. Usually by this time of year its easy to identify at least 4 or 5 teams that have no realistic chance of doing anything. Sadly many times in my 30 years as a Jets fan we have been one of those teams. But this year it's hard to find a team that I would bet my house on not making the playoffs. Lets break it down.

First we have elite teams. They have a franchise QB, a well rounded team and veteran, respected coaches. They are always in the playoff hunt.

  • Patriots
  • Broncos
  • Packers
  • Ravens
  • Seattle

Next are solid contenders. They have a franchise QB and are building around him. As well as a solid established coach.

  • Cardinals
  • Colts
  • Lions
  • Steelers
  • Cowboys
  • Giants
  • Chargers
  • Bengals
  • Chiefs

So far that's nearly half the league. Next we have teams that have a young starter and are moving forward with him. They aren't in rebuild mode, they have just completed that and are ready to make a playoff run.

  • Eagles
  • Panthers
  • Rams
  • Raiders
  • 49ers
  • Jaguars
  • Dolphins
  • Vikings
  • Bucs
  • Titans

Next we have teams that don't have a franchise QB, and are definitely in rebuild mode. Playoffs don't look likely.

  • Jets
  • Bills
  • Browns
  • Texans
  • Redskins
  • Bears

That leaves us with 2 teams that don't fit any category... and frankly could make a run only because they do have franchise QB's... unfortunately the rest of the players around them are terrible. This is rare, but with a genuine high quality QB they have a chance.

  • Falcons
  • Saints

So if you truly examine this list we have only 6 teams out of 32 who don't have either an established franchise QB or a young highly drafted player poised to take that spot. And 2 of those 6 teams (Bears and Redskins) have guys who have had success in the past and could regain their previous form, making them immediate contenders.

I have only 6 teams who I would be comfortable betting on missing the post season. And any of those six could win the super bowl if only a QB were to emerge this season. The Jets and Bills especially are stacked roster wise at every position but QB. But lets not focus on the bottom of the list. The top 16 teams on this list all have a solid spot at playing in the big game this year. That's crazy.

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