Were the Jets impressive last year? No. But considering what they started with at beginning of the 2013 offseason, it's amazing they won more than 2 or 3 games. How did we end up .500 last year?
Our front office (led by JI) drafted the defensive rookie of the year, with the pick they got from unloading an injured diva corner who went on to waste the other teams money and time, and who played nothing like a guy who warranted a top 15 draft pick via trade. But it's not just about getting the pick, it's who he drafted. Richardson completes our D-line perfectly. I frankly didn't understand the pick at the time, but it freed up couples to move outside and elevated Harrison and Wilkerson. He played to our strength with that pick and scored a franchise 3-4 DE that should be here for a long time. Our front 7 is now top 5 in this league and our front 3 are probably the best in football.
Next big move was landing Marty Mornhinweg as our offensive coordinator. That move went so under the radar. For so many reasons it was brilliant.
Then he brings in Milliner with the #9 overall pick. He is still developing, but this kid can become elite and if our #1 overall pick this year develops to his potential, next year we are one veteran free agent CB away from a Seahawks style secondary.
With the 9th pick of the second round he lands Geno Smith. I am not a huge fan of this guy thus far, but there is no question he has totally outplayed E.J. Emanuael from the Bills and he was drafted in the perfect spot. Our division opponent totally reached and drafted their franchise QB way too early and he has bust written all over him. Because we waited on Geno his cap number for the first 4 years is below 1 million each year. That's huge. Smith has a chance to be the guy. That's something to build on.
Next big move was scoring Chris Ivory via trade for a 4th round pick. This move is so reminiscent of the Marshawn Lynch trade back when Idzik was in Seattle. Ivory has such a similar playing style and compliments Powell so well. Even before CJ2K was in the picture I loved this backfield. This is also an example of knowing who not to resign. Dumping Greene was a great move. IMHO we went from a D- backfield to an A+ in 12 months. Wow!
He also brought in outstanding role players like Nelson, Colon and Walls as well as drafting Winters and Bohanan who both started most of the season and looked good for rookies. All of this with no cap room and a dysfunctional locker room that free agents were staying away from like the plague.
Year 2... Dump the garbage like Sanchez, Holmes, Hill, and Cromartie. He also let guys like Howard walk because he knew he couldn't sign them for what they were really worth. I also like the free agents he didn't sign. We certainly had the cash to go spend like drunken sailors (Raiders anyone?) but instead he locked up solid role players for short/reasonable money like Cumberland, Pace, Nelson and Colon. He made a couple of splashes in free agency by landing CJ2K, Vick and Decker.
Most importantly he used the compensatory picks he got from letting mediocre players like Slauson, Greene, and Keller go and gave us 12 picks in the draft. No one knows what these picks will yield, but the formula is the key. Seattle had a few busts and a few bad Free Agent signings, but the formula is what made them world champs. Our previous GM proved that if you only have 3 or 4 swings in the draft each year, one strike out and you're fucked. And Mr. T had way more than one strike out (Gholston, Sanchez, Keller, Wilson, Ducasse, Hill.... etc.)
Building through the draft does two things. It keeps a flow of inexpensive talent on your roster as well as creates a culture of unity. Seattle showed this with Sherman and Wilson. They cost them barely anything towards the cap in 2013 and delivered star performances. At the same time a number of the young high quality talent they have on their roster have only known one locker room, the Seahawks. It all about building a championship environment. Idzik saw this happen in Tampa when he was a part of that legendary staff and again in Seattle.
When you are drafting players you get guys that fit into 3 groups. The 1st is "busts". Self explanatory and EVERY GM has them. No way to avoid it. The next group is "solid contributors" who help win games and play well enough to warrant an inflated contract on the free agent market, but just simply aren't good enough to pay to stay here. The great thing about those guys is they help the team while they are here, and they are the gift that keeps giving because they can also land your team compensatory picks down the road (which keeps the drafting machine running). Guys like Slauson and Greene were perfect examples. The final group are your franchise players. Guys like Wilson, Sherman and Thomas from the Seahawks or if you would like to go back to Tampa you had Lynch, Brooks and Sapp. Soon ALL 3 will have yellow jackets.
That being said, by year 3 things need to start to click. Also sometimes major changes happen during the process. Tampa flipped head coaches during their climb form the dog house to the penthouse and everything fell into place at the right time. This year I expect 6-8 wins. If we hit 8 Rex buys one more year. 6 or less and I think he's gone. My prediction for next year is this: Rex gets his walking papers and Idzik hires Darrell Bevell as our new head coach. My dream scenario is that the Jaguars fall flat on their faces (yet again) and they fire Gus Bradley and we land him as our Defensive coordinator. Very unlikely. I also like Spagnuolo from the Ravens for the DC spot.
With the JI's handpicked staff in place he builds on the previous 2 years drafts and free agent moves.
I keep D'Brick and Mangold with the hopes that Giacomini and Winters both establish themselves as rock solid starters on our O-line. That leaves us one starting guard short... and I love our 4th round pick Dozier possibly filling that role. That covers the O-line.
I desperately hope we find a way to resign Kerley. I think he and Cobb from Green Bay are the exact same player, but #11 wasn't lucky enough to play with Rodgers. He and Decker are outstanding #2 and #3 wideouts. I also like TE's Amaro, Sudfeld and Cumberland as pass catchers. If all 5 of these guys take the next step (and we retain them all) we are simply one #1 WR away from a formidable receiver corps. Again, one player fills out this squad just like the O-line.
The front 7 is just crazy. Yes we are short a pass rushing OLB. Babin and Pace can hold the fort this year, but they are goners next year. I also think Harris is on his way out. He will be an expensive luxury in 2015 and Davis has developed so well. Just won't need him after this year. Obviously our #1 offseason priority will be signing Wilkerson to a big deal. It will happen and our front 7 will continue to get even better with more veteran free agents and draft picks.
The secondary could get some invaluable experience this season even though they will look bad a lot of the time. But if Milliner and Pryor stay the coarse and live up to the hype, in 2015 we could be one solid #2 CB away from the best and youngest game changing secondary in football. Especially if Allen establishes himself as a starter next to Pryor. Again one player away in 2015. Noticing a pattern?
That leaves us with the RB's and QB's. I am fine with CJ2K being one and done. He's got way too much mileage and a Ivory/Powell backfield could be amazing in 2015. Powell will turn heads this year. I obviously hope Geno works out, but if he goes down with Rex in 2014 he will still be a reasonably priced back up for 2 more years, and we would be drafting a QB in the top 15. There are some great options coming up in the 2015 draft and that player would be stepping into a team that will have outstanding talent and depth around him much like Wilson did in Seattle. Either way 2015 looks like the turning point for this team.
My dream 2015 is Bevell as HC, Spagnuolo as DC, Mornhinweg as OC (especially if we stick with Geno as the starter). An O-line anchored by Brick and Mangold, a front 7 led by Richardson, Wilkerson and Davis, a secondary with Milliner and Pryor shining bright, Decker, Kerley and Amaro getting a #1 wideout as the missing piece to the puzzle and totally opening up the defensive coverage's, and Ivory & Powell leading the running attack.
If Geno Smith and Quinton Coples emerge as stars in their respective roles by the end of 2014 (these are big "ifs") we are going to make a championship run in 2015. We will take the #1 receiver in the 2015 draft, bring in a top notch veteran CB and find a pass rushing OLB (somewhere) and we dominate. If these two players fizzle out in 2014 we will still be a top 10 team in 2015 but it will take more time to become elite and possibly, dare I say, champs.
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