So many scenarios and candidates: HC's

There are SO MANY capable head coach candidates on the market. Ignoring the variable which is the desire of any coach to come here, considering what a mess things are including having to follow Rex who definitely has the complete loyalty of the players as well the fact he created a no accountability environment. Once players are used to that it's hard to break them. I'd seriously consider turning over 65% of this roster. They are spoiled rotten and will give the new coaching staff resistance.

Instead I'm focusing on who the best candidates would be.

In this order I would choose:

Sean Payton
Mike Shanahan
Todd Bowles
Nick Saban
Jim Harbaugh
Jack Del Rio
John Gruden

As you can see most of these guys have extensive head coaching experience, 3 of them have won super bowls, 2 of them have also had huge success on the college level, 3 of them are former NFL players, and 5 of them are currently very happy to stay where they are now and are not available. Only Harbaugh and Shanahan are sure to be available in about a week. All of them would/will be heavily sought after.

Lets start with my ultimate dream hire, the guy I have waited almost 30 years for as a Jet fan, the guy we all deserve... Sean Payton. I would say he is a top 3 coach in this league. But he has struggled lately because of a number of reasons. He is dealing with a declining QB who is also a 20 million dollar drain on the salary cap. That limits your ability to surround that QB with talent. He has lost a lot of the leadership he had when he won the super bowl. Basically the Saints are now a rebuilding situation. I don't think he would resign, but I think the Saints may decide to go in a different direction. There's about a 10% chance he becomes available, but if he does its a no brainer. I'd also explore a possible trade, if Payton would be open to it. I'd give our #1 pick without hesitation for a guy like this to lead us.

Next up is Mike Shanahan. He is available and interested in coaching again. No way he wants to end his career the way he did with Washington. He made some big mistakes down there, but he knows how to win. He could be a cure all option serving as GM and HC. I like the idea of reuniting Cutler and Shanahan the man who drafted him. A blockbuster trade of Cutler and Marshall would instantly make us a contender. Marshall, Decker, Kerly, Amaro, Ivory and Powell would be a sick offense for Cutler to run. I have NEVER been a fan of Cutler but QB's don't grow on trees, and I think in the right system... with the right coaches Jay can win. A run heavy offense with a few prime time targets like Marshall and Decker could be the right formula. Jay needs a dominate HC like Mike to control him.

I also like the staff Shanahan could build with either his son Kyle or Kubiak stepping in as OC. Shanahan/ Kubiak could be another Parcells/ Belichick scenario where Mike signs up for like maybe 3 years and Kubiak slated to take over when he leaves. Baltimore may miss the playoffs and I don't think the Ravens would not consider parting with the "Kube".... as for Mikes son in Cleveland, I think that organization may understand a son wanting to go work with his dad. Kyle Shanahan coming here opens the door to consider Hoyer or Manziel via trade considering Kyle's intimate knowledge of them both. Mike is by far the most interesting candidate. But, is Woody willing to pay?

Todd Bowles has been my #1 choice since October, but I didn't think Shanahan would be interested in coaching again or that Payton might be available. I choose their experience over Bowles... but by a close margin. Only two former Super bowl wining HC's are ahead of this brilliant young assistant. I like everything about Bowles including the fact he is alumni from my high school. He's a former player, he runs a 3-4 defense (so we don't need to re-tool), and he has the presence and persona of a CEO style head coach.

He's a no nonsense guy who has worked with Parcells, Reid and now Arians. He played for Gibbs and his 2013-2014 Arizona defenses have been beyond impressive. I know many Jets fans don't want yet another defense minded HC, but it's the intangibles that matter. I believe he would bring most of his outstanding defensive staff with him form The Cards, but I do have concerns about him building an offensive staff. I like the idea of a 3-4 defense and a West Coast offense, and Morhenwig has worked with Bowles previously when they were both coordinators in Philly. So Bowles may retain Marty.

Saban will coach again in the NFL eventually. he is obsessed with his legacy and he has nothing left to prove in college. Just like Carroll he will take one more shot. Why not here? He is also an all purpose hire who will probably want total control. He can create a culture and would be a huge advantage over the next few years drafting considering his knowledge of all of the recruits. He can handle the media and would have no issue building a lights out staff. Could he get something out of Milliner, our highest drafted player in years?

Harbaugh is nowhere near the top of my list because there is obviously a reason why the 49ers are kicking him out of town. I don't like the idea of trading a draft pick for him and I don't think his family will be happy in NY. But, he is a proven winner, and this guy knows how to coach offense. May have the best chance of developing a QB compared to any guy on this list. And we all know QB is the center piece to anything that comes after. I think he wants to stay in the Bay Area and one of the main draws for this coaching job is NYC. Don't see him coming here, even though that's not my motivation for writing this as I said.

Jack Del Rio is a guy I have always liked as a head coach. he doesn't have the resume as some of the other guys on this list, and things ended pretty bad in Jacksonville for him, but he is a true head coach. He has the experience and brings outstanding leadership to town. Not my first choice but he will motivate his guys like Rex did. My question is regarding offense. Who would run his offense and develop his QB? That was always his achilles heal in FL. In many ways we'd be landing another Rex Ryan, but Jack is smarter, more experienced and he is also not a bumbling clown. So yes, he's an upgrade and the best of what's left. We could do much worse.

Finally, the John Madden of the new millennium. Gruden has become an outstanding commentator on MNF and as much as I love him and Trico I am more interested in the Jets winning games than prime time television. Gruden just signed a gargantuan contract extension at ESPN and there is about a 1% chance he leaves the booth to coach any team. BUT, if his brother is fired I would love to see John take over the Jets and partner with his brother to create a dominate "pound the rock" style offense. This is the biggest long shot of the group, but it's always good to leave no stone unturned.

So many scenarios and candidates: GM's

Well, its x-mas eve and all I want to start out the new year with hope is the END of the 'Wrecks' Ryan era. Woody Johnson has followed my advice by hiring a couple of very experienced "football guys" as consultants (you're welcome Woody!). I had recommended Mr Bill Parcells, but Woody chose two equally qualified men in Charlie Casserly and Ron Wolf. I'm not a huge fan of Casserly, but there is no question he has a ton of knowledge about how to build and run an NFL team. As for Wolf, he may be the best mind available for this situation. I doubt either one of these men will stick around long term, but there guidance will be invaluable to Johnson in the short term.

So lets go over some options starting with GM candidates.

I would choose in this order: 

Eric Decosta from the Ravens
Tom Gamble from the Eagles (formerly 49ers)
Duke Tobin from the Bengals
Scott Pioli from the Falcons

I'm sick of hearing that there are no good coaching candidates, or GM's or QB's. The talent is out there, but you need to know what you are looking for. All four of the guys I mentioned can get it done. They have all been part of winning organizations and they all know the formula to build a successful team. That being said, Decosta is head and shoulders above the rest.

I think that the Ravens are the best organization, and most well built team in the NFL. I think Ozzie Newsome is the finest executive in the league today. He guided the Browns through the bumpy transition from Cleveland to Baltimore, drafted 2 first ballot HOF'ers with his first 2 draft picks and won his first super bowl with no QB. He kept his team amongst the leagues best making the playoffs almost every year this century, found his franchise QB, landed the best young coach in Harbaugh, and won his second championship year before last.

Decosta has worked with Newsome for 17 years as a scout, director of scouting, and now assistant general manager. He's 43 years old and couldn't be more ready to run his own team. However, there are rumors that Ozzie is looking to retire soon and it looks like Decosta is staying put in Baltimore where he is the heir apparent. Every man has a price, and the Jets offer something the ravens don't... New York City. We also offer a top 5 pick in every round, over 50 million in cap room, and some interesting talent that we have the rights to, but at the same time are not handcuffed to. If you believe in your heart that you know how to build an NFL team from scratch, why would you not want to do it under the bright lights of the greatest city in the world? Sure, if it goes wrong you will be crucified (see John Idzik), but winners don't think that way.

As for the other guys on the list, Gamble was the guy I wanted when we hired Idzik. Huge part in building the 49ers and now the Eagles. Duke Tobin has been an important reason why the Bengals are overflowing with talent and have emerged as a perennial playoff team. And Pioli is a guy who's stock has dropped, but I believe can build a championship team. I think he learned some huge lessons in KC and we can benefit from being his 2nd shot at running the show. The only reason he's not ahead of Gamble and Tobin is because he's a former Patriot. I hate how it looks if we hire him.

For the record I support retaining Idzik in a salary cap management position similar to what he did in Seattle. He is a big part of why we have so many options regarding free agency and our awesome cap space. He could be great help to Decosta on the finance end.

My Final Rex Ryan Rant

First off, I don't hate Rex. He seems like a great guy to have a beer with. If he ever wants to pop over for a BBQ at my house he's welcome. Now on to destroying him as a head coach.

I started this blog about a month after Rex was hired. September 4th of 2012 was the first time I mentioned firing Rex Ryan. What I said was if the 2012 season turned out to be as bad as 2011 we needed to remove Tannenbaum and Ryan and start fresh. I even warned about how bad it would be to force Rex on a new GM.

A few months later I outright called for his firing and took a long break from analyzing the Jets on this blog. I knew Ryan wasn't going anywhere and I knew nothing would change. So why post the same thing over and over? I have watched the Jets, but my passion has faded. Not because they are losing... I'm used to that after almost 30 years watching this team. But because of the old saying... if nothing changes, nothing changes. It's just boring to see the same cycle over and over for the past 6 years.

So for 28 months I have had to sit and watch a team that is ill-prepared, sloppy, lost, discombobulated, mistake prone, dumb, and most importantly... so easily satisfied (refer to week 17 last year when we missed the playoffs for the 3rd season in a row. Yup, the players gave him a Gatorade bath for that at the end of the game SMH). Everyone of those aforementioned qualities is a direct representation of their head coach. It's not the fault of the 3 different OC's, 2 different DC's, 2 different GM's, 2 different highly drafted QB's.... it's REX RYANS FAULT. Even during the 09' and 10' seasons we were a sloppy mess.

Ryan has a losing regular season record. We snuck into the playoffs his rookie year because the colts pulled their starters, year 2 we had an amazing squad and beat the Pats 2 out of 3 games including a playoff game in their house (one of the best moments in Jets history) and ever since then, 4 years in a row without a playoff birth... not even close to one. Summary, one good season out of 6... and that damn 2010 team could have won a super bowl with a complete head coach at the helm.

I mentioned that Rex would make a good drinking buddy, and I mentioned that amazing game back in January of 2011 when we beat the Pats in the playoffs and made Wes Welker cry. I am convinced that after 6 years of ineptitude Jets fans who still support Rex love him solely because of those 2 things. And that's just not good enough to keep a coach in place after failing week in and week out.

Rex is not a CEO style coach. He's a guy that wants to jump in the trenches and cheerlead for his players. A CEO has a cold heart. You wouldn't want to have a beer with most CEO's. They see the big picture, set crystal clear expectations and are never afraid to put anyone on the chopping block if they aren't getting the job done. They are 100% focused on the bottom line... and in the NFL we all know the bottom line is winning. A CEO never micro manages but instead makes sure they can keep themselves free to see the team as a whole while delegating to other proven leaders.

Rex is 2-11, his job is on the line, he's now gone 4 seasons without a playoff birth, this team is rated near the bottom in almost every conceivable statistical category on offense and defense. His message to the team? We are CLOSE..... so CLOSE. He doesn't know when to bench a player, he doesn't set expectations with severe consequences when they aren't met, he is unquestionably our full time defensive coordinator (Thurman is a joke) and he has little to nothing to do with the offense. He is more focused on being loved by his players, entertaining the NY media in press conferences, and looking like a good company man to Woody Johnson than he is on winning. Again, his eyes aren't on the bottom line like a CEO should be.

Great football coaches are loved because the players know that he is a big reason why they are winning. I don't remember Seattle Seahawks players lining up to say how much they loved and respected Pete Caroll until they started winning two years ago. Mike McCarthy and Belichick look like two of the biggest douches in history, but their players love them. Not because they tell great jokes in meetings, not because they never criticize them publicly, not because the are so loyal they won't bench them until they have the worst QB rating in the league and the season is lost at 1-6.

Their players love them because they are all about winning. If you are cut or benched you know why... you weren't helping them win. Can you imagine Tomlin or John Harbaugh making jokes during press conferences at 2-11 and saying that who starts at QB is a "team" decision??? If you are making the final call and hiding behind the front office you're spineless... if you are the HC of an NFL team and you are not allowed to pick your starters each week, you should yell it from the roof tops and then quit. Deflecting blame is what Ryan and our whole front office has been about for 2 years now.

Rex was quoted this past week saying that we have 2 good QB's on our roster and it's a hard choice picking a starter each week. Seriously??? Vick and Smith have been complete disasters. Why would you keep praising them? What do you gain from this?

To wrap this up I will mention what I saw on the practice field during Rex's run as the HC.

I first attended a Rex Ryan practice in the 2010 preseason (this was the Hard Knocks year when the guys were eating burgers while running plays in practice... on camera). What I saw was really odd to me. I saw players jogging around casually, Rex making the rounds chatting with players telling jokes making them laugh, dropped passes everywhere, it was a late start of coarse, and I couldn't believe this was for real. After seeing that practice I said I thought we wouldn't even make the playoffs. I can't imagine what could have been that year if we would have had some discipline and focus.

Every practice I have attended since them have been exactly the same. Every game I've watched, win or lose, I see:

• the same dumb penalties,
• guys looking lost pre-snap,
• 12 men on the field,
• blown coverages,
• careless turnovers,
• horrendous in-game coaching decisions and adjustments,
• struggling players left out on the field getting beat, play after play after play

That's your legacy Rex, a lot of talk and below average results. His players never seem to get better and he hasn't learned a thing in 6 years. Good bye and good riddens!

OK, so FCK Idzik

Obviously my opinion on our GM John Idzik has drastically changed since my post in early September. I was really excited about this guy. I'll tell you why. Now I want him gone as soon as the season ends. I'll tell you why.

Idzik is a really smart guy who has been around this league his whole life. He believes in fiscal discipline and building through the draft. He came from a championship program and he is in many ways the exact opposite of Mike Tannenbaum. I also thought he made chicken soup out of chicken shit in 2013. That's why I liked him.

What changed? Well, I thought we were a 6 win team back in the beginning of the season. So, the fact that we are not going to make the playoffs and are in the running for the #1 overall pick in the 2015 draft is not why I am so down on Idzik. I knew we were in year 2 of a 3 year rebuild. I think I am a fan that has pretty realistic expectations, at least as real as any true fan can be. Having rose colored glasses is not a defect of a fan, its what makes you a fan. And there is a difference between wearing those glasses and wearing blinders. I always try to think positive, but I also call it as a see it on the field.

Unfortunately a lot of fans don't really follow or understand the NFL very well. Most of them only know we went 8-8 last season, so they expect 9-7 or 10-6 as a minimum expectation this year. Not taking into consideration the actual schedule or the fact that every hole isn't going to be filled from one year to the next. If there was no salary cap maybe a well run NFL team wouldn't have to rely on the draft so heavily and take time to develop players in house. But there is a cap, and spending just to spend never has and never will work.

Idzik really rolled the dice on our secondary and I addressed that before the season started. I said that they would look bad, but that they would hopefully be gaining invaluable experience. Well our 3rd overall pick went on IR before the preseason even started, and Milliner barely played at all, missing time being sandwiched between two different injuries.

Sadly Idzik had zero back up plan. When Idzik passed on Revis I said I thought the Pats way overpaid for him. I also thought it would mess up their locker room. With the information that I had, including Wilfork demanding his release right after the Revis signing, it looked like a desperate move. I also didn't care that we didn't pursue him because it was the first week of free agency. I never thought that we wouldn't bring in at least one high quality veteran CB to help run Rex's defense.

Well 9 months later the Pats are tied for best record in the AFC and Revis has looked good. He's not Revis Island anymore, but he has done a solid job for Belichick. Meanwhile our secondary is easily the worst in the entire league. Hindsight being 20/20 I must ask how an NFL GM didn't see how important it would have been to at least make a major run at this guy.

Essentially, if we resigned Revis, it would have not changed our overall situation. We would have won 6 or 7 games instead of 2 or 3... either way no playoffs. Revis can't play QB, just like Geno Smith can't. Revis can't pass block, just like three 5ths of or O-line can't. Revis can't stretch the field and catch TD passes, just like our WR corps can't. BUT, this is NY sports, not Seattle. Perception is reality, and perception is manipulated by the venomous NY Sports Media. Any executive running a NY sports franchise needs to understand how to spin public perception like a savvy expert.

Signing Revis would have meant:

• We traded a semi-popular player for a high 1st round pick
• We drafted the DROY with that pick
• We resign that same player back less than 12 months later
• We would not sit on over 20 million in unused cap room
• No one can claim the front office is sabotaging the head coach (because he gets his favorite player back)
• We have a quality veteran who knows the defense like the back of his hand to help us be competitive
• Every idiot with a Revis jersey in his closet busts a nut in his pants
• We keep a player, who fits our division rival perfectly, away from them

All of these things considered, there is no way you pass on Revis. You, at the very least, fight for him. If you lose an aggressive bidding war then Revis becomes the bad guy. Instead, Idzik left himself out to dry and has become a well deserved lightning rod for all of our short comings in 2014.

I made the decision to support Idzik being removed as GM when he had his weird mid-season press conference. This guy was so lost and off-putting it hit me like a ton of bricks that there is no way he has what it takes to run a NY NFL Team. End of discussion.

I'm not against him stepping down into a salary cap management position, similar to what he did in Seattle, but he needs to be out of the decision making department. He's a complete failure as the face of our front office.

Duane Charles Parcells

There is only one man who can save the NY Jets. Bill Parcells will never coach again and he is semi-retired. I know he will never coach again because he turned down the Saints gig when their coach was suspended. I knew he was focused on the Hall of Fame and getting in before he died.

Well, the HOF gleam is off the rose, he released a new book recently, he's been out their dropping quotes about teams like the Giants and their lack of effort, and he's going to be on the NFL Network and ESPN in coming weeks. I for one will be watching.

I think this guy is bored and ready to get his hand dirty again. He has shown these patterns for decades. When you listen to this guy talk he doesn't sound like a guy who is ready to go to pasture. And their is such a void in this league right now of true "football guys" who know how to build a team from scratch.

Unless he signs a TV deal before the end of the season I think he will be working for an NFL team in 2015. WHY NOT THE NY JETS??? he brings our team and this program INSTANT credibility and stability. He can re-build the scouting department, front office and coaching staff... with Woody's phat ass checkbook.

• I see Parcells as our President of Football Operations.
• I see his piss boy son-in-law Pioli as our new General Manager.
• And I see them bringing in Todd Bowles, who coached for Bill in Dallas, as Head Coach.
• I see Charlie Weiss as OC and one of Bowles fine defensive assistants like Tom Pratt, Mike Caldwell or Kevin Ross stepping in as DC.

Bowles has a great foundation for his 3-4 defense already on our roster, and I really believe he can rebuild our secondary. I also like Weiss as an assistant, he just sucks as a head coach.

I am sure Parcells would completely gut our scouting department. Most importantly Woody will let him do whatever he wants. He won't have certain rules like not allowing Revis to come back, or pressure on the front office to bring in guys like Tebow to sell jerseys and PSL's.

All of the planets have aligned for Bill to make his triumphant return to NY football. He will have a top 5 pick in every round and 50-60 million in cap room. The key is Woody getting on his knees and begging while also letting Parcells to not only write his own pay check, but be able to spend on the other additions I mentioned to the front office and coaching staff.

No more bottom 3 paid head coaches and GM's. Woody needs to understand he offers only one thing to this team.... MONEY $$$$ Spend some richy rich, spend some!!!

Year 2 of a 3 year year plan...

Things are on track with the John Idzik master plan. JI inherited a horrendous situation when he accepted the job as the GM of the Jets in early 2013. He had a fat loser head coach who he was hand cuffed to, an unmotivated shell shocked QB who was draining the salary cap, a cancer at wide receiver who was also swallowing way more than his share of the cap (and was also coming off a major injury), a diva corner who was going to make negotiating a new contract an absolute circus (as well as his own rehab from a major injury up in the air), a D- backfield, a C- O-line, a D- WR corps... and we also needed all new coaches on the offensive side of the ball... and it was salary cap hell.  Talk about making lemonade.

Were the Jets impressive last year? No. But considering what they started with at beginning of the 2013 offseason, it's amazing they won more than 2 or 3 games. How did we end up .500 last year?

Our front office (led by JI) drafted the defensive rookie of the year, with the pick they got from unloading an injured diva corner who went on to waste the other teams money and time, and who played nothing like a guy who warranted a top 15 draft pick via trade. But it's not just about getting the pick, it's who he drafted. Richardson completes our D-line perfectly. I frankly didn't understand the pick at the time, but it freed up couples to move outside and elevated Harrison and Wilkerson. He played to our strength with that pick and scored a franchise 3-4 DE that should be here for a long time. Our front 7 is now top 5 in this league and our front 3 are probably the best in football.

Next big move was landing Marty Mornhinweg as our offensive coordinator. That move went so under the radar. For so many reasons it was brilliant.

Then he brings in Milliner with the #9 overall pick. He is still developing, but this kid can become elite and if our #1 overall pick this year develops to his potential, next year we are one veteran free agent CB away from a Seahawks style secondary.

With the 9th pick of the second round he lands Geno Smith. I am not a huge fan of this guy thus far, but there is no question he has totally outplayed E.J. Emanuael from the Bills and he was drafted in the perfect spot. Our division opponent totally reached and drafted their franchise QB way too early and he has bust written all over him. Because we waited on Geno his cap number for the first 4 years is below 1 million each year. That's huge. Smith has a chance to be the guy. That's something to build on.

Next big move was scoring Chris Ivory via trade for a 4th round pick. This move is so reminiscent of the Marshawn Lynch trade back when Idzik was in Seattle. Ivory has such a similar playing style and compliments Powell so well. Even before CJ2K was in the picture I loved this backfield. This is also an example of knowing who not to resign. Dumping Greene was a great move. IMHO we went from a D- backfield to an A+ in 12 months. Wow!

He also brought in outstanding role players like Nelson, Colon and Walls as well as drafting Winters and Bohanan who both started most of the season and looked good for rookies. All of this with no cap room and a dysfunctional locker room that free agents were staying away from like the plague.

Year 2... Dump the garbage like Sanchez, Holmes, Hill, and Cromartie. He also let guys like Howard walk because he knew he couldn't sign them for what they were really worth. I also like the free agents he didn't sign. We certainly had the cash to go spend like drunken sailors (Raiders anyone?) but instead he locked up solid role players for short/reasonable money like Cumberland, Pace, Nelson and Colon. He made a couple of splashes in free agency by landing CJ2K, Vick and Decker.

Most importantly he used the compensatory picks he got from letting mediocre players like Slauson, Greene, and Keller go and gave us 12 picks in the draft. No one knows what these picks will yield, but the formula is the key. Seattle had a few busts and a few bad Free Agent signings, but the formula is what made them world champs. Our previous GM proved that if you only have 3 or 4 swings in the draft each year, one strike out and you're fucked. And Mr. T had way more than one strike out (Gholston, Sanchez, Keller, Wilson, Ducasse, Hill.... etc.)

Building through the draft does two things. It keeps a flow of inexpensive talent on your roster as well as creates a culture of unity. Seattle showed this with Sherman and Wilson. They cost them barely anything towards the cap in 2013 and delivered star performances. At the same time a number of the young high quality talent they have on their roster have only known one locker room, the Seahawks. It all about building a championship environment. Idzik saw this happen in Tampa when he was a part of that legendary staff and again in Seattle.

When you are drafting players you get guys that fit into 3 groups. The 1st is "busts". Self explanatory and EVERY GM has them. No way to avoid it. The next group is "solid contributors" who help win games and play well enough to warrant an inflated contract on the free agent market, but just simply aren't good enough to pay to stay here. The great thing about those guys is they help the team while they are here, and they are the gift that keeps giving because they can also land your team compensatory picks down the road (which keeps the drafting machine running). Guys like Slauson and Greene were perfect examples. The final group are your franchise players. Guys like Wilson, Sherman and Thomas from the Seahawks or if you would like to go back to Tampa you had Lynch, Brooks and Sapp. Soon ALL 3 will have yellow jackets.

That being said, by year 3 things need to start to click. Also sometimes major changes happen during the process. Tampa flipped head coaches during their climb form the dog house to the penthouse and everything fell into place at the right time. This year I expect 6-8 wins. If we hit 8 Rex buys one more year. 6 or less and I think he's gone. My prediction for next year is this: Rex gets his walking papers and Idzik hires Darrell Bevell as our new head coach. My dream scenario is that the Jaguars fall flat on their faces (yet again) and they fire Gus Bradley and we land him as our Defensive coordinator. Very unlikely. I also like Spagnuolo from the Ravens for the DC spot.

With the JI's handpicked staff in place he builds on the previous 2 years drafts and free agent moves.

I keep D'Brick and Mangold with the hopes that Giacomini and Winters both establish themselves as rock solid starters on our O-line. That leaves us one starting guard short... and I love our 4th round pick Dozier possibly filling that role. That covers the O-line.

I desperately hope we find a way to resign Kerley. I think he and Cobb from Green Bay are the exact same player, but #11 wasn't lucky enough to play with Rodgers. He and Decker are outstanding #2 and #3 wideouts. I also like TE's Amaro, Sudfeld and Cumberland as pass catchers. If all 5 of these guys take the next step (and we retain them all) we are simply one #1 WR away from a formidable receiver corps. Again, one player fills out this squad just like the O-line.

The front 7 is just crazy. Yes we are short a pass rushing OLB. Babin and Pace can hold the fort this year, but they are goners next year. I also think Harris is on his way out. He will be an expensive luxury in 2015 and Davis has developed so well. Just won't need him after this year. Obviously our #1 offseason priority will be signing Wilkerson to a big deal. It will happen and our front 7 will continue to get even better with more veteran free agents and draft picks.

The secondary could get some invaluable experience this season even though they will look bad a lot of the time. But if Milliner and Pryor stay the coarse and live up to the hype, in 2015 we could be one solid #2 CB away from the best and youngest game changing secondary in football. Especially if Allen establishes himself as a starter next to Pryor. Again one player away in 2015. Noticing a pattern?

That leaves us with the RB's and QB's. I am fine with CJ2K being one and done. He's got way too much mileage and a Ivory/Powell backfield could be amazing in 2015. Powell will turn heads this year. I obviously hope Geno works out, but if he goes down with Rex in 2014 he will still be a reasonably priced back up for 2 more years, and we would be drafting a QB in the top 15. There are some great options coming up in the 2015 draft and that player would be stepping into a team that will have outstanding talent and depth around him much like Wilson did in Seattle. Either way 2015 looks like the turning point for this team.

My dream 2015 is Bevell as HC, Spagnuolo as DC, Mornhinweg as OC (especially if we stick with Geno as the starter). An O-line anchored by Brick and Mangold, a front 7 led by Richardson, Wilkerson and Davis, a secondary with Milliner and Pryor shining bright, Decker, Kerley and Amaro getting a #1 wideout as the missing piece to the puzzle and totally opening up the defensive coverage's, and Ivory & Powell leading the running attack.

If Geno Smith and Quinton Coples emerge as stars in their respective roles by the end of 2014 (these are big "ifs") we are going to make a championship run in 2015. We will take the #1 receiver in the 2015 draft, bring in a top notch veteran CB and find a pass rushing OLB (somewhere) and we dominate. If these two players fizzle out in 2014 we will still be a top 10 team in 2015 but it will take more time to become elite and possibly, dare I say, champs.

1st week of Free Agency comes to an end

The New York Jets are officially being run like an elite organization, maybe for the first time ever. To be clear... we are NOT an elite organization yet, but we are following the best practices and the overall blueprint for an elite club. I read online somewhere that "John Idzik is challenging the myth that you can't rebuild in New York". That stuck with me.

Because we were 8-8 and our defensive line looked so impressive I think some fans may have lost sight of who we are as a franchise heading into this offseason. We don't have an established franchise QB, a number 1 WR (or a 2), a superstar TE, or any game changers in our secondary. Oh, and 60 percent of our O-line are below average players. When you have major holes on both sides of the ball the last thing you do is start filling them with cast off, over priced free agents. You BUILD THROUGH THE DRAFT!!!!!! (in my best 'you play to win the game' sarcastic Herm Edwards voice).

It's admirable that our lame duck coach finished the season .500, and I'm impressed with our GM for fielding a decent team last year considering what he walked into. That doesn't necessarily mean we win 10 games this year. From the day Idzik arrived every move has been about 2015. Last year we got outstanding production out of Richardson, solid production from Geno, Milliner, and Ivory (acquired with a 4th rounder via trade) and multiple starts from Bohannon and Winters. 6 significant contributors from 6 draft picks.  The Revis trade may be the best in team history. Like I said last year, it's not just maneuvering yourself and collecting draft picks, it's about who you ultimately draft. We traded away an aging, diva CB for the defensive rookie of the year who immediately turned our D-line into our #1 strength. Wilkerson, Harrison and Richardson (The Sons of Anarchy?) were responsible for at least 5 of our 8 wins.

The players who we drafted at 2 key positions (CB, LE) with our first 2 picks will be seasoned vets by 2015. Demario Davis, Couples and Wilkerson will also be savvy vets. These 5 players will be the heart and soul of our team by 2015. This year we will be stocked up with 11-12 picks heading into the draft in early May, and this years haul of talent will get a year under their belts in 2014. In the 2015 draft we pick up the final pieces to the puzzle. That's the perfect time to land some impactful rookies at positions like RB, Kick returner, and pass rusher.

That being said... I am spending a lot of time on last year and the draft, and this thread is about free agency and the 2014 Jets.  My draft threads will be forthcoming.

The big news in the league revolves around teams with aging QB's breaking the bank and throwing money at players who are past their prime in a last ditch effort to win the big one before their QB's ride off into the sunset. And, aimless organizations with cap money simply offering contracts to ANYONE who looks good in a uniform. The Browns, Raiders and Jaguars are spending like drunken sailors. If you need any proof that you can't "Buy" a super bowl look at the 3 franchises I just mentioned.

So far the Jets landed an offensive lineman from Seattle that Idzik obviously knows a lot about. He's projected as starting RT. I know absolutely nothing about him, but Idzik snatched this kid up quickly and he's young, so obviously they must think highly of him.

Our other big signing is a player you may have heard of, Eric Decker. I want to capsulize my feelings on this player. He's got good size, average speed, above average hands and he has been pretty durable. He's a rock solid #2 WR and everything considered he was the #1 WR on the market. He doesn't cost us a draft pick, he's young, and I'm sure Mr Johnson is thrilled that he will sell jerseys. The best part is that his 36 million dollar 5 year deal has only 15 million guaranteed. It's essentially a 3 year 15 million dollar contract. That's perfect.

Revis became available suddenly and he played Belichick like a child. He and his people put up a smoke screen about how much he wanted to come back to the NYJ. Why would that guy want to come here after we shipped him off to FLA last year at this time, and he knows we won't over spend??? All he cares about is money. If we wouldn't give him a big long term deal last year, why would we pay him now? He simply scared the Patriots into giving him 12 million bucks for one year when guys like Wilfork and Brady have taken pay cuts, renegotiated and given crazy hometown discounts.

After all of the years of Billy B letting key veterans like Branch, Seymore, McGinist and Welker walk and refusing to pay them, he breaks the bank for one of the most well known former Jets. The media painted it like the Jets getting beat out for Revis, but our team was clear that they never attempted negotiating with Revis and our GM and owner had "no interest in bringing him back". Meanwhile, the core of their defense and maybe the 2nd most respected player in their locker room, next to Brady, Wilfork immediately demands his release. And ESPN calls it the best free agent signing so far this year. This reminds me of the Ty Law situation from back during the Herm era (wow 2 Herm references in one thread!) in reverse. This time they are overpaying for our sloppy seconds.

There are still some talented players left out there. The Jets and Giants are both meeting with DRC, the corner from Denver. There is no question we land him if we want him. Why would a defensive player want to go to the Giants over playing for Rex? If the Giants land him they were willing to pay much more. Our front office has put very clear monetary values on any and all FA's and they won't over pay... period.

Moving forward, I have ZERO interest in Finley from Green Bay. Bringing back #31 for the right price is something I'd take a look at,  LeGarrette Blount is on my radar, Kenny Britt because he's a Jersey guy and this is a great time to buy low with him, I'd love to see Cotchery back in green & white on a 1 year deal, the injury prone Andre Brown would be a nice addition to our backfield since we wouldn't need to rely on him as a #1 back, Fred Davis at TE would be great paired up with Cumberland, Kyle Love is a DT who has been up in New England... he'd fit in well for a great price, James Ihedigbo would fit into our secondary well. I'd be surprised if we sign even one of these guys, but they would all help us win games.

The final 2 players I will mention are a bit more controversial. 1st is Mike Vick. He would beat Geno, Sanchez or anyone else we could land at this point for the starting job. Especially in Marty's offense. That's why he will probably land here, however, I'm not sure the Jets want him. I have a weird feeling we end up with Josh Freeman, not sure why, but I think Rex and Tanny were ready to take him if the trade with Cleveland wouldn't have worked out in 2009. I don't like him for us, but I think if he took a 2 year deal (with a ton of incentives)  with the Cardinals and was humble enough to sit behind Palmer, he could eventually be in a position to lead that team and have some serious success as early as 2015.

And finally Richie Incognito. YUP. I think he's a complete scumbag, but the Dolphins already paid the price for his antics. We would land him for the league minimum, Rex will take him under his wing, and Mangold will keep him in check. And, he has every reason to be on his best behavior and lay low. He may actually be improving as a human being because of all the counseling he's been through over the past few months. But most of all he can play. He would actually fill out our O-line quite well. There's very little risk if we also draft a guard to compete with him.

All the experts can go DUCK themselves...

All the experts claim they have figured out Johhny Football. Oh Really??

He's been projected as high as #1 overall and referred to by one anonymous NFL GM as "undraftable". I have never been one to get caught up in the hype of any college QB leading into the draft. I was not thrilled with any of the QB's we have drafted in the past 15 years including Pennington, Sanchez and Smith. Ironically I did like Kellen Clemens in the early 2nd round, who obviously never panned out. I also ended up becoming a big fan of Pennington even though I hated taking him in the 1st. (Sidebar: I'd love to have him back as a part of this organization in some-sort-of coaching capacity, but that's another thread.) I have a hard time thinking of any QB I've truly been excited about from the draft, mainly because you simply can't tell from watching a guy in college how he will translate to the pro's. That being said, having the right guy behind center is the key to winning a championship in this league (especially in 2014).

So how do we find our guy? The Jets have had a philosophy for many years that has survived 2 owners and a bunch of GM's. They've chased the fading veteran. Boomer... O'Donell... Vinnie... even Favre. Now they are talking about brining in Schaub from Houston or Vick from Philly. I do understand the importance of a seasoned veteran in a QB competition, but I would frankly take Sanchez over either one of these washed up dudes. I'd like to refer to them as "formerly great" but that would be a lie. Formerly average QB's in their 30's rarely equal success. Rich Gannon is a one in a million shot.

My ideal scenario this off-season would be restructuring Sanchez (drastic pay cut), obviously keeping Geno and Simms, and drafting Johny Manziel from Texas A&M.  If we use our multitude of draft picks this year (9 in all) and our projected $40 million plus in cap room to make a huge impact on the overall talent level of our offense, one of the aforementioned signal callers can be the guy we need to lead this team into the playoffs. Especially considering the state of the other 3 teams in our division.

All 4 are interesting players with very different skill sets. Simms would be the obvious long shot, Geno would have a leg up on everyone after winning 8 games with Mornhinweg, and Sanchez would also have a steep climb to get back to the #1 spot. This group makes sense financially, we could afford them all, unfortuneately to score Manziel we would have to move up into the top 5. A player taken that high is pretty much an automatic starter. So this whole scenario falls to pieces because of how hot Johnny Football has gotten now that we are only 10 or so weeks from the draft.

I'll write about the other 3 QB's who are already on the roster including why I have changed my tune about keeping #6 for the right price, but this thread is about Johnny. My feelings on this prospect are dynamic and passionate.

What I like: His arm strength, elusiveness, speed of his release, (which have all been criticized by a lot of scouts) and obviously his foot speed/acceleration. His intangibles are by far the most appealing thing about this special player. He's one part Eli Manning, one part Tim Tebow, and one part Doug Flutie in big moments. He's very simply fun to watch because you know he will leave it all on the field every week. He's insanely cocky, but in a way that will rally his teammates because he's a bit undersized.

That leads me to what I don't like: His overall footwork is wildly inconsistent, he has way too much confidence in his arm (he thinks he's Dan Marino... which he certainly is not), his frame is way too small and fragile to survive the beating he will take in the NFL (see RG III and Mr. Vick who I mentioned earlier in this thread). You will not be able to stop this kid from running with the ball, which you wouldn't want to do, but you would want to control it. Russell Wilson is smart and humble and has outstanding offensive coaches up in the Pacific Northwest. We simply don't have the right people to develop Manziel. ;(

I think this special player could win a Super Bowl, but he would need to be in the right system with a solid franchise. Playing for Rex Ryan would be the kiss of death. My other big issue with this kid is that his draft stock is way too inflated. He would ideally be an early 2nd rounder like Kapernick or Geno Smith. I'd even consider his late 1st round if you were really thirsty for him. But he may actually go #1 overall, and that's just way too high of a pick for a player with so many question marks/ durability concerns. Risk/Reward go hand in hand. You have to roll the dice from time to time to jump start your franchise, but this kid could seriously use a year on the bench to learn, which isn't a reality when you are a top 5 pick at QB.

Either way I will be rooting for this young man and watching him. My fingers are crossed that he will land in the right place and stay healthy. The 2 places I'd love to see him land would be Denver or New Orleans. He could sit a while and then step up in 2015 or even 2016. That would give this kid a real chance to develop into a force like Aaron Rodgers. Dallas would be a nice sleeper to chace him, but they gave Romo that horrendous contract that handcuffs them as an organization for a while. Frankly any team in the top 5 of this years draft may take him, and he won't make it out of the top 5...  but if any team could really use him, and has a realistic shot at moving up it would be Minnesota. If Houston and St. Louis don't bite, I think Minnesota could move up from the 8th spot to the 3rd by flipping draft picks with Jacksonville. That would launch that franchise into being a contender with one draft pick. Defending Johnny and Adrian Peterson, with Patterson and his elite speed on the outside would be a daunting task for any defense. Just an idea.

The Matt Millen effect...

Mr Millen ran the Detroit Lions into the ground over a number of years during the beginning of the millennium. He is a head strong, tough as nails guy who convinced the ownership of the Lions that he was the second coming of Jesus Christ. They simply turned over the whole operation to him. He went on to draft 3 WR's with high 1st round picks. I'm not going to name them or list their stats or any of that shit. We all know the Lions were horrendous during the Millen era, and one major mistake he made was drafting with a one dimensional strategy.

The Jets have used a ton of draft picks on defensive players during the Ryan era. This is a league that is driven by offense. And at the very least I think you have to use balance when drafting, especially in the 1st couple rounds.

Pre-Ryan era we took Revis and Harris with our 1st 2 picks in 2007. Gholston with a very high pick in 2008. Ryan arrives in 2009 and we obviously took a QB with the #5 overall pick. But after that... Wilson (2010), Wilkerson/ Ellis first two (2011), Coples (2012), Milliner/ Richardson both top 15 picks (2013). Since 2007 we have had 2 different HC's and 2 different GM's. But there has been the same pattern of focusing on defense. Sadly our defense is not elite and still has major holes heading into the 2014 offseason.

The reason I am pointing this out is because we just simply can not continue to draft defense early. My fear is that Clowney and a bunch of other potential impactful pass rushers will be available with the 18th overall pick, and we need help at LB and with our overall pass rush. It will be tempting for Idzik, especially with Rex in his ear, to pull the trigger and try to give Coples a book end pass rushing OLB to complete our front 7. But on principle alone we need to create balance. The amount of WR's and TE's who will be available at 18 and who can have a huge impact on our offense is crazy. We need to focus our 1st four picks on offense. As the months progress I will analyze who to draft and who to stay away from, but the overall philosophy this offseason should be filling our 2 major holes on defense with free agents. Those 2 holes are Pass rushing OLB and FS BTW.

I have a very interesting idea for how to complete Rex's defense. Terrell Suggs will most likely be a cap causality in Baltimore. His history with Rex and our bounty of cap money makes the Jets the logical landing spot for him, if Newsome can't find a way to keep him. Suggs, combined with Coples and our outstanding defensive linemen would be a nightmare for QB's across the league. Harris and Davis at ILB are a solid way to complete our front 7. That leaves us the hole at FS.

My thinking is this... If we brought back Reed, signed Suggs and dropped Harris (which frees up 5 million in cap room) why oh why would Ray Lewis not seriously consider coming back for a year, reuniting with his comrades and helping his former coach finish what he started here in New York?

In an interview on MSG I once heard Ryan say that if he could pick only one person to be in a fox hole with he would chose Ray Lewis. And he didn't have to think for one second. That's the guy you need to win a super bowl. I know he's old, I know that ESPN is paying him a ton of cash and he seems to like TV. But every week this guy is on the air complaining about how defenses in this league are soft, how the rules aren't fair, and he looks like he wants to jump off the set and into a uniform.

I'm sure his conditioning is stellar and with a guy like Davis as the other ILB you could even limit Lewis's snaps. Reed, Suggs and Lewis as individuals are all old defensive players in a young man's game. But united, I think you get one magical year out of them. Our defense is very young overall, these 3 veterans would be the perfect addition to our locker room and they know what it takes to win it all. If we are going to be stuck with Rex Ryan why not use his influence to our advantage? I'd play Allen at SS, move reed to FS and the defense is complete. We spend a portion of our FA money on these three former Ravens and focus the rest of the cash and at least 5 or 6 of our draft picks on offense.

We would be building for the future and set to win today as well.