Another year of mediocrity ahead??

Rex Ryan will return as the head coach of the New York Jets in 2014. My nightmare has come true. I have tried to wait for the Ryan era to end, and to see a complete organizational change before commenting on this team again. I don't plan on boycotting any longer. Considering how much of a man crush Woody Johnson has on Rex, I may be waiting until my grand son is playing QB for the Jets before he's fired. So, I'll just try to focus on what I feel the Jets need to do to win games.

I'll make one final observation on this and then move on ... accepting that Rex is our coach:

The 4-6 1985 Bears would probably not win a Super Bowl these days. The rules are sooo skewed to benefit the offensive side of the ball that a defense with 11 probowlers and the best defensive mind in the league coaching them is useless without a big time QB and some game changers at WR and RB.

Lets look at the playoff picture. Manning, Brady, Dalton, Luck, Alex Smith and Rivers. The NFC: Wilson, Newton, Brees, Rodgers, Kapernick and Foles. That's who made the playoffs, I'm not mentioning their team names, it's these 12 men who made it happen, surrounded by offensive weapons and coaches.

Look at KC alone. 2-14 last year and 11 wins this year. They got a offensive minded coach and traded for a franchise QB. Essentially the same squad. 2 changes and they may win the SB this year. They have an excellent defense... but they had that last year as well. Smith and Reid are all the difference. Even guys like Rivera in Carolina and Fox in Denver who are defensive guys, have focused on their offenses and accepted that times have changed in the NFL. Defense is now a luxury in pro football. Rex doesn't think that way.

Chip Kelly is a good example of the new breed of guys who will win championships in years to come. He developed and master minded a wide open fast paced offensive system that took the college football world by storm. He took over the Eagles and wouldn't name a starting QB until the end of the pre-season. He choose Vick, but he was injured, and Foles has flourished.

I think that losing the QB competition during camp has contributed to his success this season. When he got a chance to start he never looked back. Rex is all about crowning a guy ASAP because he thinks it creates stability. Geno Smith has done nothing to earn the right to be our starting QB going into camp. But I suspect he will be. I also suspect there will be little to no competition for him. That's a losing plan. Offense is an afterthought for any Ryan, especially Rex.

What I would have done is rolled the dice on Johnny Manziel in this years draft. Taking Geno last year was an OK decision. He will cost us less than 1 million against the cap each of the next 3 years and he has some nice upside. He can sit on the bench behind a guy like Manziel or a higher priced veteran in a way that a top 5 draft pick at QB couldn't. But I do understand that Manziel to the Jets won't happen. =(

I love the idea of hiring the offensive coordinator of the Seahawks Darrell Bevell, giving him Smith, Manziel and the best veteran available to battle it out in camp. I'd also spend 80% of that 49 million in cap money that we will have this offseason and at least 6 or our 9 draft picks on overhauling the offense. That would have been my plan. I guess it's time for plan B.

Plan B:

Fat boy stays. I have always liked the guy, but to win the big one you need the smartest guy in the room, a CEO style, culture establishing, well rounded X's and O's guy and a born leader. I don't think rex fits the bill, but he's our guy. Mr Ryan has been indulged by 2 GM's in the draft landing a bunch of 1st round blue chip defensive players. Wilson, Wilkerson, Couples, Milliner, Richardson. It's time to focus on offense.

Lets not get ahead of ourselves. Before free agents or the draft I would start with who stays and who goes.

I'd dump Sanchez, Holmes, Wilson, Reed, Winslow, Pace, Landry,  and Goodson. I would like to dump Stephen Hill and Cromartie as well, but Hill is still cheap and Cromartie will restructure his contract and there is hope that this was just an off season for him. So dumping either would be premature in 2014.

I keep:

... Powell and Ivory together. Love this duo. You have the grinder and the pass catching play maker. I'd search for a more well rounded RB in the draft. Maybe a 2nd or 3rd rounder. A guy who needs some development is fine. We can ride Ivory and Powell in 2014. But landing a solid future #1 back is important this offseason.

Kerly and Nelson should also hang around. They both could be huge for us if we had a solid #1 wide receiver and a top TE. They are the types of guys who win you games, but their not #1 WR's and they need single coverage. Cumberland and Sudfeld  are ok for depth but we need a game changing TE. A guy like Witten or Gates is what we need to find. There are some great prospects in the draft and we also need to look at FA's. Guys like Julius Thomas from Denver are out there. We need a go to player at this position.

Mike Oher from Baltimore will be available and we need to throw $$$ at him. Teams like the Ravens who have a huge portion of their cap money tied up in a QB provide a bounty of outstanding players who they can't afford. With our cap space we need to plunder these key players. I am OK with giving Winters the starting job in 2014, and D'Brick, Mangold and Colon are solid. Adding Oher at RT would easily give us a top 5 O-line again. The O-line is the foundation.

I like Demario Davis at ILB and think he may push Harris for the #1 spot next year. He was a an outstanding draft pick 2 years ago. Couples was OK at OLB, but he is lazy. He had some game changing plays, but I question his hunger. There will be free agents out there who can help impact our pass rush. I wouldn't draft any defensive player with our 1st 4 picks.

Milliner finally showed some flashes at the end of the season. I am not the type of guy who makes excuses for top 10 draft picks, but he was injured in OTA's and camp and Rex's defense does ask a lot of a corner. It takes time to learn the pro game. Feeling good about him in 2014. I already mentioned Cromartie. I really like Antonio Allen and I hate the fact that Reed took his job. let's get this guy back on the field as a starter next year. That leaves us some serious holes in our secondary. If I would consider a defensive player in the first 4 rounds this year it would be a game changing safety to play alongside Allen.

Love that Nick Folk has developed into a top kicker and that is something we have needed for years. I have hated Folk from the day he came here, but he has turned a corner.

That leaves the best squad on this team. The Son's of Anarchy: Richardson, Wilkerson and Harrison (Big Snacks). Wilkerson is a rare player. He's rock solid on and off the field. He changes games and sets the standard for the defense. He's our new Revis, and I would take him over that scumb bag any day of the week. Players like Couples who need a push from time to time will follow him. Idzik needs to wrap him up for life and pay him. We have depth on our line and I hope to see all of them back in 2014.

I'm thrilled to start looking at the free agents who will be available considering the money we have to spend as well as the 9 draft picks. This offseason is the center piece to the next 3 years for us as a franchise. With money being spent properly and the right draft picks even a guy like Rex might be able to win us the big one.

One year later...

It's been one year since my last post. I decided I wouldn't post anything or take the NY Jets seriously until Rex Ryan is gone. I feel exactly the same today as I did 53 weeks ago. I thought I would check in and break from my blogging hunger strike for a state-of-the-union.

As an organization we are simply spinning our wheels by sticking with people like Rex Ryan, Terry Bradway and the rest of this coaching staff and scouting department. Woody Johnson's half-measures have held the Jets back for over a decade. We "demoted" our general manager to head of scouting (Bradway), then fired our head coach (Mangini) but kept the GM and OC, then fired the GM (Tanenbaum) but kept the head coach... but lost both of his coordinators. SMH

It's time to clean house and that's exactly what I said last year at this time. I really like our new GM John Idzik. He's an ivy league guy who comes from a football family. To run a team you need a GM who is always the smartest guy in the room and who has been around the game for his whole life. With Idzik we have that. He was served a steaming shit sandwich when he took over this past offseason. A bunch of overpriced, under-motivated handcuff cap disasters (no need to list the names, we all know who they are). A team that had hit an all-time low respect wise. A coach who had one foot in the grave. No QB, no #1 WR, no #1 RB, holes on the O-line and no threat at TE. So basically no offense and no cap money to sign any game changing FA's. And the defense was a C+ squad at best.

Wow, it looked like we were heading for a 2 or 3 win season. And nobody could have blamed our new GM. Instead Idzik signed Marty Morehinweg as OC, brought in Willie Colon to shore up the RG position, Kellen Winslow at TE, traded for Chris Ivory, drafted Brian Winters at LG, traded Revis for a 1st rounder and used the pick to draft Sheldon Richardson to start opposite Wilkerson and at the same time freeing up Couples to move to ROLB. He also drafted Dee Milliner who has unlimited upside, took Geno Smith in the 2nd round who won 5 of his 1st 9 games as a rookie starter and scored a FB in the 7th round who has started every game this season.

He also added players like WR David Nelson, return specialist Josh Cribbs and future HOF'er Ed Reed during the season as injuries piled up. We were able to beat teams like Atlanta, New England, and New Orleans and were 5-4 heading into the bye. Idzik deserves the credit for what has gone well. He inherited Ryan and obviously made sure he used him in the capacity in which he should be used... as a defensive coordinator. Ryan runs our defense and calls the plays. As a result the defense has been very impactful. No one can deny the RR is one of the best defensive minds in the game. He has almost zero involvement with the offense.

This is not ideal, but because Woody refused to make wholesale changes Idzik has had no choice but to work with what he has. Since the bye we have dropped 2 straight, blow out losses from two very poor AFC teams and now we are below .500 heading into the last 5 games of the season. Our rookie signal caller has thrown 1 TD and 10 INT's over the past 5 weeks.

This is where you need a HC, and instead we are asking our glorified DC to decide what to do here. Geno Smith has shown some promise this year. He can make plays with his feet, he has a powerful arm and good deep accuracy, he (much to my surprise) is excellent with the press and media, always saying the right thing, and he has the natural persona of a leader. He's very level headed and has led his team back from 4th quarter deficits in all of his 5 wins this year.

BUT, starting with the Cinicinatti game it became obvious the he was struggling. We beat New Orleans but Geno had little to do with it. Vs. Buffalo and the Ravens we put a leash on #7 and he has still managed to turn the ball over and has made our offense a complete non-issue for opposing teams. He was wildly inconsistent all year, and by halftime of the Bills game it was an obvious decision to pull him and give Simms the start for the 2nd half. I think 31 other HC's would have tried to salvage that game against a division rival who is also starting a rookie. Instead Ryan let Geno go out and throw 4 INT's and also lose a fumble before putting Simms in when the game was out of reach.

In the post game presser Ryan announces that Geno is the starter next week. Without discussing it with the GM or the OC he just comes out, opens his fat pie hole and vomits his unwavering support for a player that has scored a solid grade of 'F' over a 5 game span. This sends a horrible message to everyone in the organization and hurts Smith's development instead of helping him. Ryan doesn't understand basic big picture issues. The #1 mission of the NY Jets is finding a franchise QB. We have 2 young QB's on the roster to evaluate this year. We have seen everything that Geno has to offer as a rookie and not only is he doing NOTHING to help us win the staff has shown no confidence in letting him throw the ball. As soon as we are down by 10 the game is over and our opponents know it. There is nothing to be gained by playing him the last 5 games.

A decision should have been made mid game vs. Buffalo to make a change and see if Simms can #1) give our offense a spark so we can try to keep winning and make a run at the post season, and #2) Evaluate what we have in the young Simms and try to see what our plan will be going into the offseason regarding the all important QB spot. Guys like Tony Romo, Russell Wilson and the great Tom Brady were not bluechip draft picks, they are guys who got a chance to come in off the bench and became the face of their respective franchises.  Ryan is not a chess guy, he's all checkers. This is where it becomes obvious that an NFL team needs a CEO style head coach and not a coordinator who plays his HC role like he plays his roles in Adam Sandler movies.

Ryan will keep Smith in until we are 5-8 and out of the playoff hunt. This will be the 3rd consecutive year he has lost his team in the 2nd half of the season and the worst part is we won't get a fair look at Simms until the whole team has given up and Holmes is having temper tantrums in the huddle, sideline, locker room, and press conferences. So going into the offseason we will have a completely shell shocked Geno Smith and a huge question mark in Simms. We will most likely finish 7-9, mid 1st round pick and another pointless season in the books.

When this season ends Woody needs to give 100% control to Idzik. First thing he would do is fire Ryan, I guarantee. Next move would be to dump Bradway and bring in his own front office. That's a good start.

What I would do in 2014 is this:

Make a huge $$$ run at John Gruden. Idzik was in the Bucs front office when Gruden led the Bucs to the Super Bowl. Winning a championship together is a huge bond. Gruden is a CEO style coach who knows how to create a winning culture. This situation is so similar to the one Gruden walked into at Tampa. A dominate defense and a good (not great) O-line designed to run the ball. When he arrived in Tampa he was replacing a coach who was loved in the locker room and he challenged the defense to start creating turnovers and scoring. He could turn things around and has a big enough personality to erase Rex Ryan from the NY sports world forever.

I'd fire anyone that wasn't brought in by Idzik in the front office and coaching staff. If you land Gruden I would retain Morehenwig because you would have 2 of the top west coast offensive minds in the world running that squad. Marty is so good at what he does, Gruden could be a full time head coach.

Defensively I'd bring in Monty Kiffin. He will probably be let go by Dallas considering his defense is the worst in the league this year. He tried to overhaul Dallas's 3-4 defense and convert it to a Tampa 2. However, they didn't have the proper personnel and they were more cap strapped than us this past offseason. Kiffin had no chance in Dallas. I'd reunite him with Gruden and I'd build a Tampa 2 around a D-line of Richardson and Couples at DE and Harrison and Wilkerson at NT and DT. That front 4 would be crazy. Harris and Davis at LB would be a good fit, and Milliner and Wilson would probably excel in a Tampa 2 secondary. Furthermore, we will have as much as 40 million in cap room this offseason so filling in the defense with a few FA's that fit the new defensive scheme will be very doable.

As for players, we can start with QB. Smith will cost us less than 1 million a year for the next 3 seasons. That's normal back up money. That gives time to develop this player. But, we need to make a move for a veteran who can help us win now and keep Geno for the future. I would not draft a QB. 3 veterans will probably be available. I think the Bears let Cutler walk and Vick will also be available as a FA. I wouldn't touch either of these guys with a 10 foot pole. The 3rd QB who will probably be available is Big Ben from Pittsburgh... via trade. I'd give up our 1st rounder this year that will probably fall between 14-18 for an established SB champ with a some gas left in the tank. The Steelers won't publicly shop Big Ben, but they have had many issues with him over the years, they know he's past his prime and they have a huge rebuilding project in western Pennsylvania. Their defense needs a rebuild, their offense is lacking playmakers and Ben is costing them big $$$ and will be heading into the last year of his contract. This is the time to move him and gain cap room and draft picks.

If we landed Ben, I would explore keeping Holmes and reuniting them. Otherwise the 1st player I cut is Holmes, and not just to save cap room. Hate him with a passion... but he can do things that very few humans can do. With one minute left, down by 4 points, with your season on the line, Holmes suddenly becomes a top 5 WR in this league.

Obviously Sanchez is cut which brings huge cap savings to the Jets. As a sidebar, I think Denver or Dallas would be great places for him to land. But I don't really care =)

I'd try to keep this O-line together. Colon is close to hitting the wall but I think he has one good year left. Plus he knows Ben and how he moves in the pocket. Winters is looking good and Howard has established himself as a solid RT.

I'd hold onto Nelson, Kerley, Hill, Cumberland, Winslow, Ivory and Powell.

There are some interesting FA WR's coming up in 2014, and we will have the money to spend. I'd make a move for Kenny Britt and Jeremy Macklin. Britt is a Jersey guy, and maybe coming home could settle him down. Britt, Hill, Macklin and Kerley could be a formidable receiving corps. Hill has been a huge disappointment, but he needs some other legitimate threats out there to open things up for him. Haven't given up on him yet.

Defensively we need one or two good/fast young tampa 2 LB's (if we make the switch) and a game changing safety to play alongside Antonio Allen.

As for the draft, if we dump our 1st rounder on Roethisberger I wouldn't take a WR, QB or pass rusher with our 2nd rounder. I would try to find some elite talent at RB, TE or Safety with that pick. My 1st three picks would cover those positions. How often do you find a young Super Bowl champion coach and a champion QB available to spark your franchise?

Big Ben wouldn't be my long term solution. But Gruden had such success with Gannon at the end of his career, I think he would help us win while we build a talented squad to possibly hand off to Geno in 2 to 3 years.

Blow it up WOODY!!!!